The 2025 Ballon d’Or betting odds have settled on a two-man race between Ousmane Dembele and Lamine Yamal? Who will take home soccer’s biggest individual award on September 22 in Paris?
We’ll know the answers at the ceremony for the award. In the meantime, check my analysis of all the top contenders, the latest odds, and my 2025 Ballon d’Or betting prediction.
2025 Ballon D’Or Betting Odds
Here are the current 2025 Ballon d’Or odds, courtesy of BetUS:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembele | -500 |
| Lamine Yamal | +400 |
| Vitinha | +1000 |
| Mohamed Salah | +2500 |
| Raphinha | +3300 |
| Kylian Mbappe | +3300 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | +4000 |
Ousmane Dembele (-500) is starting to run away with the award at soccer betting sites, which give him an 83.3% implied win probability!
The PSG forward had an incredible season to lead his team, and he’s joined by teammates Vitinha (+1000) and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (+4000) in the Ballon d’Or odds. I won’t analyze Kvaratskhelia’s odds as he joined the team in January and is highly unlikely to win the award, despite playing really well.
Barcelona teenager Lamine Yamal (+400) is second in the odds with an implied win probability of 20% and has been labeled as the next Lionel Messi. He now wears Messi’s No.10 shirt for Barca and is already among the best players in the world someday, despite his young age!
PSG midfielder Vitinha is trying to stay with the Ballon d’Or favorites, and while Dembele had the better season in terms of statistics, Vitinha might be more important to the Paris squad.
Former PSG star Kylian Mbappe (+3300) is now at Real Madrid, and tied with Barcelona forward Raphinha (+3300). Liverpool foorward Mohamed Salah (+2500) rounds out the contenders.
You can find the 2025 Ballon d’Or betting odds at BetUS by going to Sportsbook > Soccer > Ballon d’Or Outright Futures > Ballon d’Or 2025.
2025 Ballon d’Or Betting Favorites
Ousmane Dembele (-500)
Dembele had, easily, his best season in 2024-25 in his second campaign for PSG. The French forward had 35 goals and 14 assists in 53 appearances for the team. He also pressed relentlessly from the front, which wasn’t expected, given his injury history with Barcelona.
🚨✨ Luis Enrique: “I’d give the Ballon d’Or to mr Ousmane Dembélé”.
“The way he defended tonight… only that can be worth the Ballon d’Or. This is how you lead a team. Goals, titles, leadership, defending, how he was pressing…”.
“Ousmane is my Ballon d’Or. No doubts at all”. pic.twitter.com/2fjuHO51kM
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) May 31, 2025
Dembele was a key part of a PSG team that won France’s Ligue 1, the Coupe de France, and the Trophee des Champions.
He also helped PSG to the Champions League, where they set a record in the final by beating Inter Milan 5-0. The 28-year-old had eight goals in the Champions League, and he was tied with Marseille’s Mason Greenwood for the Ligue 1 lead in goals with 21. PSG also lost 3-0 to Chelsea in the Club World Cup final, but it was still a fantastic season.
If you had a knock on Dembele, it’s that he didn’t have the best season for France, scoring one goal in three games. But Ballon d’Or voting tends to lean more towards how the player’s club season went, and the Normandy-born forward had a phenomenal season for PSG!
Furthermore, the was no EUROs or a World Cup this year, so international tournaments don’t matter as much. Still, the odds for Dembele are on the short side.
Lamine Yamal (+400)
You can’t count Yamal out of the Ballon d’Or race just yet! He just turned 18 on July 13, but Yamal is arguably Barca’s most important player, and he’s moving up the ranks for Spain as well! He had 18 goals and 21 assists for Barca in 55 appearances.
Yamal was the best player on a team that won La Liga, the Copa del Rey, and the Supercopa de Espana. Barca also bowed out in the Champions League semifinals, losing to Inter Milan 7-6 in one of the best two-legged ties of soccer we’ve ever seen.
According to reports, Spanish media are rooting for Lamine Yamal as their Ballon d’Or winner 😳
TNT Sports’ Ballon D’Or power ranking have Ousmane Dembele 4th after losing the Nations League and Club World Cup Final 👀 pic.twitter.com/m2LLn3t13k
— Pubity Sport (@pubitysport) July 17, 2025
The Spanish teenager also scored three goals in three games for his country, and he stole the show from Dembele as Spain beat France 5-4 in a classic UEFA Nations League semifinal. Yamal scored a pair of goals for Spain, while Dembele had none and was substituted in the 76th minute.
He has a knack of stepping up in the big moments. Even though he didn’t score in the 4-3 second-leg loss to Inter Milan, Yamal was the best player on the pitch, and hit the woodwork once.
If he stays on this trend, Yamal will definitely win this award. But are his Ballon d’Or odds for 2025 worth taking now?
2025 Ballon d’Or Dark Horse
Vitinha (+1000)
The 25-year-old was the best player in PSG’s brilliant midfield, alongside Joao Neves and Fabian Ruiz. He scored just eight goals and four assists in 59 appearances for PSG this season, and Vitinha is one of those players you have to actually watch to see how valuable he is.
🚨 | Toni Kroos on Ballon d’Or talk
“Vitinha didn’t just control games.. he conducted symphonies.
If he played for Madrid, he’s a media darling by now. Though Dembele is the favourite but if UEFA wants another Rodri-style plot twist… it’s Vitinha” pic.twitter.com/uvN2Z0dxqK
— Chino (@ChinoUTD) July 2, 2025
Vitinha completed nearly 94% of his passes over the season, which is key to the ball-retention style that Luis Enrique and PSG like to play. The Portuguese star is also better defensively than you suspect, especially considering his 5’8” frame.
Vitinha is still looking for his first goal for Portugal, and he is yet to lock down a starting role for his country. That should change in the upcoming year, but Vitinha hasn’t had the impact for Portugal as he has for PSG.
That’s going to hurt Vitinha in the Ballon d’Or predictions, but he was arguably the best player in the Champions League, which some will weigh more heavily
2025 Ballon d’Or Betting Longshots
Mohamed Salah (+2500)
Salah has to dominate for Liverpool as Egypt isn’t a power on the international stage. Still, the 33-year-old had his best season with 34 goals and 23 assists in 52 games, leading the league in both categories. Liverpool won the English Premier League going away, but it was their only trophy of the season.
🗣️ “This is my best chance”
Mo Salah on his chances of winning the Ballon d’Or 🏆 pic.twitter.com/SOXpWPcIee
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) May 23, 2025
While Salah had an incredible season, earning a two-year extension to stay at Liverpool, it probably won’t be enough for him to pick up the Ballon d’Or. Liverpool lost to PSG in the Round of 16 in the Champions League, and to Newcastle in the EFL Cup final. The Reds were upset by Plymouth Argyle in the fourth round of the FA Cup, but Salah didn’t play a role in that game.
The Egyptian offers a terrific return, but Salah hasn’t had the team success needed to win the Ballon d’Or in 2025.
Raphinha (+3300)
Raphinha’s amazing season was overshadowed by Yamal, but the Barcelona captain had 34 goals and 22 assists in 57 appearances. Like Dembele, it was a season that many didn’t know Raphinha had in him!
Raphinha is the first Barca attacker post Messi era to reach 50 goal contributions in a single season
RAPHINHA BALLON D’OR pic.twitter.com/OGq85hYDfU
— Brian (@Bri_an2) July 14, 2025
The Brazilian has scored four goals for his country since October, which helps his cause. At 28, Raphinha is right in the middle of his prime. But I think Yamal will get more votes, and many don’t believe Raphinha had the best season for his club, which hurts.
The Brazilian was actually the favorite in the Ballon d’Or odds late in the season, but he has fallen down the ranks, meaning he’ll offer a nice return if he pulls off the upset! And yet, I don’t think this was his year.
Kylian Mbappe (+3300)
Mbappe moved from PSG to Real Madrid for free in the offseason, and it was a messy divorce, to say the least. It also took Mbappe some time to find his place in the team, but he eventually ended up leading La Liga in goals with 31. Overall, the French forward had 44 goals and five assists in 59 games this season.
BREAKING🚨: Paul Pogba defends Kylian Mbappé and lists him as a Ballon D’or candidate.
“Mbappé – They’ve been killing him and everything, but this guy is Pichichi and the top goal scorer in Europe. It’s crazy… respect.”
— َ (@kykyszn) July 20, 2025
The 26-year-old French captain also scored twice in the Nations League, in the loss to Spain, and the 2-0 win over Germany for third place. But Real Madrid didn’t win a trophy this season, and that is a major knock on Mbappe’s chances.
However, you can expect to see his name in the Ballon d’Or odds next season as well!
2025 Ballon d’Or Betting Prediction and Pick
It’s a two-horse race in my 2025 Ballon d’Or predictions between Dembele and Yamal, and both are deserving of the award. Dembele had an outstanding season, but I’m not sure he deserves to be this far ahead in the Ballon d’Or odds.
I’m taking Lamine Yamal at +400 for a couple reasons. The return is better on the Spanish teenager, but also, he was just as good as Dembele in the Champions League while Barca was in it. He also had a better season for his country, and Spain looks to him when they need inspiration.
Finally, the Ballon d’Or has been called a popularity contest by some people. If that is the tiebreaker among voters, the nod goes to Yamal, who has taken the soccer world by storm over the last two years.
Let’s put Lamine Yamal in our 2025 Ballon d’Or predictions at +400!
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