Belmont Stakes 2026 Betting Preview: Winner Odds, Predictions, & Best Bets

Renegade (+180)

Pletcher didn’t get the trip he was looking for with Renegade in the Kentucky Derby, but the colt still fought on and never quit in the stretch. After a slow start and failing to break well, Renegade battled all the way to the wire and was beaten by just ¾ of a length.

The three-year-old, ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., was 16th at the ¾ pole and had improved to 7th turning for home before engaging in a stretch duel with Golden Tempo. Despite the defeat, Renegade’s late surge suggests he has the stamina to handle the Belmont Stakes distance.

The 1 ¼-mile trip is well within his range again, and he shouldn’t have any issues in that regard. Prior to narrowly coming up short at Churchill Downs, Renegade was in top form heading into the Run for the Roses. He entered off an impressive four-length victory in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park.

RENEGADE wins the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby with @iradortiz aboard for @PletcherRacing, earning 100 points on the road to the Kentucky Derby! pic.twitter.com/Bev0mcr549

— NYRA (🗽) (@TheNYRA) March 29, 2026

That effort followed a 3 ¾-length win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes for Pletcher. Renegade has posted speed figures of 100+ in three consecutive races as the Belmont Stakes approaches. All recent workout reports have been positive, including a sharp four-furlong move in 48.60 seconds on May 29 for the $975,000 purchase.

With that profile, expect Renegade to be a major factor in the stretch, making him one of the most intriguing Belmont Stakes winner candidates.

Chief Wallabee (+350)

There was decent support for Chief Wallabee at the Kentucky Derby betting windows. In the futures markets, he had the fourth-best price at +700, and the odds proved accurate as he finished 4th with an acceptable performance.

He was game in the stretch, but being forced four-wide earlier likely cost him a chance to get into a three-horse duel for the win. Chief Wallabee posted a 96-speed figure for the second consecutive race.

Two weeks out from the Belmont Stakes, CHIEF WALLABEE (inside) is looking great on the Oklahoma Training Track. pic.twitter.com/O562HQCuJe

— NYRA (🗽) (@TheNYRA) May 23, 2026

In the Florida Derby, he turned in a solid effort in his Grade 1 debut, finishing a close 3rd behind The Puma and Commandment, who prevailed by a nose. That came on the heels of a 2nd-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) in his prior start.

This is a horse who is almost always in the frame in the stretch run, but he has repeatedly lacked that extra kick late to get to the wire first. This could be the race where he finally puts it all together, but I’d like a better price than +350 before considering Chief Wallabee among my 2026 Belmont Stakes best bets.

Commandment (+550)

I’m confident in Commandment as a viable place candidate. He should be ready to deliver a stronger effort after a rather shaky showing in the Kentucky Derby, where he flattened out and finished seventh despite all the promise he’d shown earlier in the season.

From November 1 to March 28, Commandment put together an impressive four-race win streak. He captured his graded stakes debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) by a neck, then came right back with an even narrower photo finish win by a nose over The Puma in the Florida Derby (G1).

PHOTO FINISH: Commandment edges The Puma in the Florida Derby.
(Photo via Gulfstream Park) pic.twitter.com/Yxq07eWE0x

— J.J. Hysell (@trifectabox) March 28, 2026

He earned a career-best speed figure of 99 in the Fountain of Youth, then dipped slightly to 97 in the Florida Derby and 93 in the Kentucky Derby. In Louisville, he tracked a steady pace and turned for home in fourth but faded late and yielded to stronger finishers.

I do expect some degree of a bounce-back performance, but I’m not convinced he has the stamina to be at his best going 1 1⁄4 miles again. For win purposes, I’m tossing Commandment in favor of his rivals. However, he still profiles as a legitimate threat to hit the board, particularly underneath in the place or show slots.

Racing fans! The Belmont Stakes at Saratoga is fast approaching and we already have a preview live on our YouTube channel. However, for those that haven’t got round to that yet, here is an outline to my top three picks for the feature race.

We have a nine runner field for this year’s renewal, and it is fascinating that the top five in the betting from this field all ran in the Kentucky Derby too. The winner that day was Golden Tempo who delivered a strong finish to beat Renegade. I do however think everything fell right for Golden Tempo that day, and I wouldn’t be so sure that he will back up that performance here.

I actually think the likeliest winner here is going to be the runner up Renegade, who consistently performs to a very high level and this smaller field should play right into his hands. His best asset is definitely the way he finishes his races, and the fact that the field isn’t that big, means he won’t ever be too far off the pace, and ultimately, I think that’s why his strong finish will be too much to live with here.

Commandment is another with a big chance here. He actually won his first four starts before his below par effort in the Kentucky Derby, however there are plenty of excuses for his seventh placed finish.

The first is he broke slowly out of the gates and lost a fair bit of ground, and from there he was never able to find his position. As they approached the home turn he has to go four or five wide to get a clear run, but by the time he got to the straight, he had to use far too much energy to  get back on terms and was never nearer.

This smaller field though will be ideal for him, and should allow him to resume progress. I expect a big effort here especially with John  Velasquez back in the saddle. That’s a major bonus to his chances.

My longshot for the race would come in the name of Growth Equity. He is a nice double figure price and there is a lot of upside to this horse. His first two starts came over six and seven furlongs and he finished runner up both times.

However, he since gone out to a mile, and a mile and a quarter, winning both in fine style, and he looks like a horse that is still improving now. He shaped initially like a horse for the shorter trips, but as he has gone out in distance, he has continued to improve and probably hasn’t reached the ceiling of his ability just yet.

My final verdict on the Belmont Stakes would be Renegade, to beat Commandment, with Growth Equity staying on strong late at a big price.

VERDICT:

1. Renegade

2. Commandment

3. Growth Equity