UEFA Champions League Picks Today: UCL Predictions for February 17

Benfica and Real Madrid met at the same stadium, in the same competition less than a month ago and produced one of the most stunning Champions League moments of the season. The Portuguese side needed an injury-time goal from their goalkeeper to progress to the playoffs, dumping Real from the Top 8 in the process.

𝐀 𝐆𝐎𝐀𝐋𝐊𝐄𝐄𝐏𝐄𝐑 𝐆𝐎𝐀𝐋 🫨 — Benfica 𝑺𝑯𝑶𝑪𝑲 Real Madrid and send them to the play-offs 🤯 pic.twitter.com/kwDbHFMLLL

— 433 (@433) January 28, 2026

Fate obviously has a twisted sense of humor, because the two teams will meet again in the playoffs. I expect a completely different outcome this time around, though.

For a start, this is personal for Real Madrid. On the last day of the group stage, the team was humiliated by Benfica and forced to play two extra matches in an already congested schedule. The Spanish side’s stars will be looking for revenge here.

On top of that, the team has found some form recently and is now leading the Spanish La Liga again. In the last domestic match on Saturday, Real Madrid had an early lead to Real Sociedad, which allowed head coach Arvalo Arbeloa the luxury to rotate his squad. In essence, Real Madrid will be rested, full of confidence, and eager for revenge.

That doesn’t bode well for the hosts, who have struggled this season. Benfica barely made the UCL playoffs, while domestic form hasn’t been good enough. The team is third in the Portuguese League, way behind leaders Porto.

Scoring goals has been an issue at times, while the defense does well against weaker sides but is often exposed against quality opposition. That’s why I expect a victory for Real Madrid here, and at almost even odds, this is one of the best Champions League picks today.

Newcastle enter this opening game as solid favorites, but Qarabag won all of their 10 points in the UCL group stage at home. In fact, the team’s games in Azerbaijan have been wild, to say the least.

It all started with a fairly reasonable 2-0 against FC Copenhagen, but the next three home games delivered a total of 15 goals. In fact, all of them had both sides scoring at least two goals.

Long story short, Qarabag don’t mind trading blows at home, so I expect more of the same against Newcastle. The English team has mostly struggled away from home this season but is currently on a 2-game win streak as a visitor. In both games, the opposition scored, though, and Newcastle’s defense as a whole has been vulnerable the entire season.

I expect a very open clash here, with opportunities on both ends. While Newcastle is likely to win this one, the over 2.5 goals and both teams to score market offers much better value at +124.