UEFA Champions League Picks Today: UCL Predictions for February 25

I didn’t expect to see odds for Real Madrid to win as high as -161 when I started looking at today’s UCL matches. It looks like the bookies are underestimating the Spanish side a bit here.

Benfica have struggled away from home in the Champions League this season, losing three out of four away games. The only win came against Ajax, who lost their first five games in the competition and looked doomed from the get-go.

Furthermore, the Portuguese side will be without Jose Mourinho, who was sent off in the chaotic first leg. The incident from last week should fuel Real Madrid even further, so they will be highly motivated for this match.

All things considered, the home side should’ve been priced somewhere between -200 and -250. Betting on them to win at -161 is a solid choice, but I’m happy to go a step further and back the hosts to cover the -1 spread at plus odds.

The first leg of this tie was fantastic to watch, with Monaco taking an early 2-0 lead before PSG bounced back to win 3-2. The reigning Champions League champions are in control and should finish the job at home, but I expect a quiet first half.

Both teams will be motivated to keep it tight. Luis Enrique will be eager to avoid a slow start like in the first match, while Sébastien Pocognoli will require from his team to stay in the match as long as possible to build some pressure on the opposition. As long as PSG’s lead is a single goal, Monaco are in this.

As a result, I expect a fairly conservative opening half without many chances. Let’s not forget that two of the last three encounters before the action-packed first leg only produced one goal each and were goalless at half-time.

This one could provide a similar tactical battle, so the -115 on under 1.5 at the interval is one of the best Champions League picks today.