Will Trump Be Convicted: Odds of Former President Going To Jail

Will Trump Be Convicted: Odds of Former President Going To Jail

Is Donald Trump going to jail? That’s one of the hottest questions around the US election, and you can even bet on that at the top political betting sites.

Donald Trump secured the Republican nomination, but his battles for the hearts and minds of America have just begun. He faces 88 charges across four criminal trials:

  • January 6 Case
  • Classified Documents Case
  • Stormy Daniels Hush Money Case
  • Georgia Election Interference Case

In this post, I explore the latest Trump conviction odds and share my predictions for anyone following the former president’s legal saga.

Donald Trump Conviction Odds And Predictions

BetOnline offers these markets for anyone interested in odds on Trump’s trials:

No. Guilty Counts in Hush Money/Stormy Daniels CaseUnder 5 (+150)
5 – 24 (+175)
25 or More (+175)
25 or More
No. Guilty Counts in Classified Documents CaseUnder 10 (+135)
10 – 33 (+225)
34 or More (+150)
34 or More
Trump Cleared on First Four Indictments before 2025?No (-4000)
Yes (+1000)
Will Trump Cut a Plea Deal with State or Federal Prosecutors?No (-1500)
Yes (+600)
Will Trump be Convicted and Serve Prison Time Before 2025?No (-4000)
Yes (+1000)
Will Trump be Convicted and Serve Prison Time Before 2026?No (-500)
Yes (+300)

Trump faces most of his charges in the classified documents case and the Stormy Daniels hush money case. 74 of Trump’s 88 criminal charges are in these two cases. (Trump originally faced 91 charges, but six charges were dismissed in the Georgia election interference case.) 

The odds of Trump being cleared in any of his four cases, much less all of them, are minute. It’s unreasonable to think the former president will escape his legal woes completely unscathed. Whether Trump receives a presidential pardon if he’s convicted is a different question that is not factored into these bets.

On top of my quick picks on all markets, I provide more details on the best bets related to Trump’s potential jail time. Before I get there, I want to give you some useful information on all the developments that are about to happen.

You can find up-to-date odds for all Trump’s convictions at Bovada by navigating to Sports > Politics > Donald Trump Specials.

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How To Keep Track Of Donald Trump’s Cases?

Anyone who bets on these markets will need to keep track of what Trump actually gets charged with. The New York Times has a Trump case tracker with case timelines, criminal charges, and annotated documentation, so readers can see the charges themselves.

Total Charges Against TrumpBreakdown of Charges
Classified Documents Case40 Counts32 Counts – Related to unauthorized retention of national security secrets

7 Counts – Related to obstructing the investigation

1 Count – False statements
(Two co-defendants were also charged with one count each of making false statements.) 

Hush Money/Stormy Daniels Case34 Counts12 Counts – Related to ledger entries

11 Counts – Related to checks

11 Counts – Related to invoices from Michael Cohen

Georgia Election Interference Case10 Counts2 Counts – False statements and writings

2 Counts – Conspiracy to commit forgery in the first degree

2 Counts – Conspiracy to commit filing false documents

1 Count – Violation of the Georgia Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act

1 Count – Filing False Documents

1 Count – Conspiracy to commit false statements and writings

1 Count – Conspiracy to commit impersonating a public officer

January 6 Case4 Counts2 Counts – Related to efforts to obstruct the vote certification proceedings

1 Count – Conspiracy to defraud the United States

1 Count – Conspiracy to violate civil rights

The number and breadth of criminal charges in all four cases makes Trump’s legal woes look insurmountable. However, his presidential odds remain competitive, with money continuing to gravitate toward a Trump victory in November.

The number and variety of charges also makes the chances of Trump being charged for few to none of them remote. That’s particularly true with the Stormy Daniels and classified documents cases. Let’s talk about that next! 

Trump Stormy Daniels Hush Money Best Bet

The Stormy Daniels case isn’t really about her or the hush money itself. It’s about how the cash was paid to her and how the paper trail was covered up.

During his 2016 presidential campaign, Trump paid porn star, Stormy Daniels, not to discuss their affair. By making false payments to his lawyer, Michael Cohen, Trump could disguise his hush money payment as a business expense.

Donald Trump begins proceedings at Manhattan criminal court in the Stormy Daniels hush money case.
Trump awaiting start of proceedings in the Stormy Daniels hush money case [AP Photo: Yuki Iwamura]

However, falsifying business records is a crime. Fake expenses reduce companies’ tax burdens, and false documents undermine investors who are trying to decide whether to put money into a company. Clamping down on this behavior reduces the kind of open bribery and corruption that occurs in countries with underdeveloped legal systems and property rights.

However, many of the headlines focus on the porn star and infidelity piece of the trial. That makes it easy to lose track of why Trump is on trial in the first place.

Because there are so many counts related to hard documents, bettors should wager on a large number of counts sticking. 25 or more is available at +175, making it an excellent pick on this case.   

The Bet
25 or More

Trump Classified Documents Best Bet

After he left office, Donald Trump took boxes of national security documents. Many of these documents should’ve been kept by the National Archives. Instead, they were kept in boxes in the Mar-a-Lago basement.

Some of these documents were related to nuclear secrets of the United States and its allies. Others included response plans to attacks from various adversaries around the world. Knowing how the United States would respond to an attack from China, Russia, Iran is a grave risk to national security.

32 of the case’s counts are related to “unlawful retention of national security secrets.” Seven were of Trump’s own making. He’s accused of obstructing the investigation, piling on additional counts. Even without the false statement count, it’s hard to see how many charges Trump can avoid.

The number of charges attached to documents rather than intent make aiming high prudent on this line. The Trump conviction odds of +150 on 34 or more make a lot of sense for this market.

The Bet
34 or More

Trump Conviction Betting Picks

Many of the Trump conviction odds are related to each other. Trials are long to begin with. The investigations alone have lasted years in some of these cases. Preparing a trial, conducting it, and inflicting consequences can take weeks and months. Given the complexity of all four cases, the chances of Trump being cleared or serving time in 2025 are remote. 

Still, the odds of -4000 for this outcome are way too short for a bet, but there are other interesting options. The chance of a plea deal and the timing of prison sentences are related. Trump could take a plea deal if it kept him out of prison until after the election.

A plea deal would be one of the most likely ways to delay sentencing after one of Trump’s trials. If that happens, any prison time he could serve would be pushed to 2025 if Trump loses.

A plea bargain could be one of the best ways to delay sentencing long enough after the Stormy Daniels hush money case for Trump to attempt an electoral victory in November. He can’t pardon himself, but he wouldn’t have to serve a sentence until after his presidential term.

Trump is unlikely to admit defeat, but that won’t stop him from taking a plea deal if it offers him a way back into the White House. It’s a reasonable move given all circumstances, so getting +600 for a plea deal is excellent value.

Trump could also lose the election and be convicted in one of his four serious trials. An electoral defeat in November could put Trump in prison in 2026. It’s almost the same bet as backing Biden to win, which is currently available for +120 compared to the +300 for Trump to go to prison in 2026.

The Bet
Trump Plea Deal? Yes
The Bet
Trump Convicted and Serve Prison Before 2026? Yes

Where To Bet On Trump Convictions?

Many online betting sites offer many Trump jail prop bets, but two of them go the extra mile with the variety of wagers covered.

You can find all markets in this article at BetOnline, one of the top sportsbooks for politics online. New players can instantly grab a 50% welcome bonus of up to $1,000. The bonus can be doubled through a 100% match bonus with a cryptocurrency deposit. 

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I also recommend BetUS, where you can find many political markets, including odds on Trump going to jail. The sportsbook also has a lucrative bonus of up to $3,750.

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About the Author
Christopher Gerlacher profile picture
Christopher Gerlacher
Blog and News
Christopher Gerlacher is a writer and journalist who has covered the sports betting industry and the many betting platforms available leading up to the 2022 midterms. His political writing includes work throughout the gambling space to help bettors make sense of what election odds really mean. Politics is his favorite sport and it shows. He’s also a devout Broncos fan, for better or for worse, living in the Colorado foothills.

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