Predictions for the Senate Election 2024: Which Party Will Take Control?

Predictions for the Senate Election 2024: Which Party Will Take Control?

My Senate election predictions can give you an idea of what to expect for the 2024 race. Bills can live or die in the Senate, where committees and senators with six-year terms to worry about figure out which laws they’re comfortable voting for or against. It’s a vital chamber to control.

Many political betting sites offer Senate election odds, which opens the doors for savvy bettors to make some money. I’m here to help by breaking down the closest Senate races and sharing my  best bets for the upcoming Senate elections.

All odds in this post are courtesy of BetUS, a top sportsbook for betting on US politics.

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Nevada Senate Winner Party Odds, Predictions, and Best Bet

  • Democrats -145
  • Republicans +105

Nevada will be one of the most closely watched Senate races in 2024. Bettors have intuited how close this race is expected to be. The odds lean in favor of the Democratic incumbent, but the Republican challenger is setting himself apart in the race.

Incumbent Jacky Rosen has attached her name to some of President Biden’s most popular legislation, including the Inflation Reduction Act, which made historic investments in clean energy and created at least 11,500 new jobs in Nevada.

Sam Brown, the Republican challenger, is an army veteran who was nearly killed by an IED in Afghanistan. He’s running on a conservative economic and states’ rights platform. However, he’s also trying to distance himself from other Republicans on abortion.

Nevada passed a referendum protecting abortion rights in the 1990s. Brown has stated that he wouldn’t support a federal law interfering with Nevada’s abortion protections. However, he has also praised Donald Trump’s “leadership on the issue.” Trump has taken responsibility – with pride – for overturning Roe v. Wade, muddying Brown’s position. Still, the candidate’s position stands apart from Texas’ approach of seeking criminal penalties against women who seek abortions.

Nevada will be a close race that tests this new Republican approach to abortion in a post-Roe America. The best bet is to bet on the Republican candidate here, who appears ready to take a moderate stance on most key issues.

The Bet

Ohio Senate Winner Party Odds, Predictions, and Best Bet

  • Democrats -105
  • Republicans -135

Sherrod Brown, the Democratic incumbent, is being challenged by Republican Bernie Moreno. This is another close race that will test Republicans’ ability to overcome Trump’s losing streak from 2018 to 2022.

FiveThirtyEight has Brown leading by four to eight points. Historically, Brown’s seat is safe. He won his 2018 race by 6.4% and his 2012 race by 6%. That’s in line with his current polling, so on paper, his reelection chances look good.

However, Brown has to contend with a new challenge: Ohio’s potential to swing to Donald Trump.

When a president does well, his party often does well in congressional and local races, too. Senators, Representatives, and Governors benefit from a popular president in their party or an unpopular one outside of it.

Trump won Ohio by 8% in 2020, and Brown hasn’t had to face a Senate race where his president lost the state. When Brown was first elected in 2012, Barack Obama won Ohio by just under 3%.

Since Trump is leading Biden in the polls and Ohio is an increasingly red state, so Moreno may be swept into office on the back of a strong showing for Trump among Ohio voters.

This is the reason why the Republican candidate is slightly favored by the bookies. At the same time, Sherrod Brown is in a strong position to retain the post, so backing him where the value lies in this one.

The Bet

Arizona Senate Winner Party Odds, Predictions, and Best Bet

  • Democrats -220
  • Republicans +155

Arizona is a battleground state, and its senatorial primaries won’t be until July 30. Based on current poll data, it will likely be a contest between a moderate Democratic candidate and MAGA challenger, Kari Lake. The odds show an easy Democrat victory in the race to replace Independent Senator, Kyrsten Sinema.

The split between the most loyal Trump Republicans and those who are considered moderate by comparison will be on full display during the Senate primary. In the 2018 and 2022 midterms, the Republicans who embraced election denial theories and extreme positions on abortion underperformed. That was especially true in swing districts.

Arizona’s Senate race will be a continuation of the same trend. The likely Democrat, Ruben Gallego, is a Representative in the House. His campaign site advocates for abortion rights and acknowledges the border security challenges that southern states like Arizona face.

He’s a moderate Democrat while Kari Lake is the type of election-denying extremist that lost Republican races in the last two midterms.

Even if Arizona went to Trump, Lake is unlikely to overcome voters’ reservations. The best pick for this race is on the Democrat, even if the odds are fairly short.

The Bet

Michigan Senate Winner Party Odds, Predictions, and Best Bet

  • Democrats -260
  • Republicans +170

Michigan is a swing state, so its Senate seat is in the balance, too. Trump won there in 2016 by less than a quarter percentage point and Biden won it by less than 3% four years later. However, Michigan is also home to strong Democratic candidates, like Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who’s a possible replacement for Joe Biden at the Democratic Convention.

The Democrat running is Elissa Slotkin, a Democratic Representative in the House. She’s a moderate Democrat who has not only supported major Democratic legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act, but she also built herself credentials as a moderate.

She refused to vote in favor of Nancy Pelosi becoming Speaker of the House in 2021. Slotkin has also introduced a bill addressing national security concerns of Chinese electric vehicles.

The Republican challenger, Mike Rogers, was a House Representative from 2001 to 2015. Today, he’s running on a tough on crime and immigration platform. Rogers beat two other Republican candidates who impeached Donald Trump – Justin Amash and Peter Meijer. He has cemented himself as a Trump Republican, giving him power in the primary but which could hurt him in the general election.

Recent polls give Slotkin a two to five-point lead over Rogers, but both candidates are competitive. The race could hinge on the fallout from the presidential race.

The best Senate odds pick is on the Republican to win. It’s a close enough race that there’s value in betting on Rogers this time around at +150 or higher.

The Bet

More 2024 Senate Betting Odds

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About the Author
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Christopher Gerlacher
Blog and News
Christopher Gerlacher is a writer and journalist who has covered the sports betting industry and the many betting platforms available leading up to the 2022 midterms. His political writing includes work throughout the gambling space to help bettors make sense of what election odds really mean. Politics is his favorite sport and it shows. He’s also a devout Broncos fan, for better or for worse, living in the Colorado foothills.

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