US Presidential Election 2024 Odds, Predictions, and Best Bets

The US presidential election betting odds for 2024 have been a rollercoaster! We’ve seen assassination attempts, and presidents stepping down at the last minute. It’s been crazy!

I’m here to help by providing an expert analysis of the latest developments in the 2024 Presidential Election. The best political betting sites now have Trump as a favorite, so I will dissect the reasons for his lead and provide my prediction for the elections.

In this article, I analyze the latest US presidency odds and developments, key issues, and more. I don’t only focus on the lines for the next president.

I cover different US election odds, including:

• Which presidential candidate – or celebrity – will win the election.
• Whether the first female president will be elected in the 2024 election.
• Whether Democrats or Republicans will win the election or the popular vote.

Even though the presidential race seems like a match between Harris and Trump after Biden stepped down, other candidates could win in November. In this article, I explore the odds, highlight the key factors in the race, and share my predictions and best bets for the US Presidential Election 2024.

Election Betting Odds For The US Presidency 2024

The following odds on the US Presidential Election 2024 are courtesy of Bovada.

Bovada offers election betting odds on two types of candidates: the safe group and the risky group.

The safe group includes Trump and Kamala Harris. The risky group features 40 other politicians, celebrities, and other public figures. Michelle Obama isn’t and won’t be a candidate, but after Biden stepped down, Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer are strong contenders for candidates who could replace him at the Democratic Convention.

Still, Kamala Harris was endorsed by the president and looks like the most likely candidate to face Trump. The Republican candidate remains the favorite to win, but the odds suggest a surprise is possible. Trump is -215 to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. This marks a -300 to -214 shift since Biden announced he won’t continue.

The US presidency odds should be unsteady in the next weeks as well, with so many uncertainties around the Democrats.

You can find up-to-date U.S. Presidential betting odds at Bovada by navigating to Sports > Politics > US Presidential Election 2024 > US Presidential Election.

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Kamala Harris and Other Likely Successors

Biden’s debate performance has led to repeated calls for him to step down. His inability to keep pace with Trump’s barbs led some commentators to wonder what would happen if Biden had a poor performance with a hostile world leader like Vladimir Putin or Xi Xinping.

As his Vice President, Kamala Harris would be the natural pick for the nomination. She was chosen with Biden’s advanced age in mind.

Harris was 56 in 2020 while another VP contender, Elizabeth Warren, was in her 70s. The Vice President was also a fierce debater with a strong prosecutorial record to run as a tough-on-crime liberal. With Biden’s war chest and with freedom from the constraints of the Vice Presidency, Harris could mount a strong attack on Donald Trump.

Biden also endorsed her, but she is not the only high-profile Democrat who could replace him. Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer are among the names we’ve heard from various sources, although there hasn’t been anything official.

Newsom is the Governor of California, making him the face of progressive governance. That comes with benefits and baggage, but he’s undoubtably one of the Democrats’ best debaters. He gained widespread praise for a hostile interview he did with conservative pundit, Sean Hannity.

Gretchen Whitmer is the moderate Democratic governor of Michigan. She hails from a crucial swing state and was an early consideration for Biden’s Vice President.

She gained a national profile during public spars with Trump during 2020. She was also an early consideration for Biden’s Vice President because she aligned so closely with Biden’s moderation. Another powerful communicator in her own right, she could launch a competitive campaign as the Democratic nominee. 

And yet, Kamala Harris is in prime position to represent the Democrats. You should focus on her. Polls from months ago put her in a decent position against Trump, but we don’t have fresh data after the assassination attempt and Biden’s move to step down.

How Did the Assassination Attempt Affect the Race?

During a political rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, former President Donald Trump was shot in the ear while talking to a crowd of supporters. The FBI reported that Thomas Matthew Brooks, 20, of Bethel Park, Pennsylvania was responsible for the assassination attempt.

Perched on a building from more than 150 yards away, Crooks fired several shots toward the stage. Trump subsequently grabbed his ear and dropped to the ground. A bystander ultimately lost their life, while injuries were reported in the crowd. So, how did this incident impact the US Presidential odds?

According to Bovada, there has been a significant shift in favor of Trump. The -175 to -300 odds movement I noted above happened in direct reaction to the assassination attempt at the rally in Pennsylvania. Bettors hammered Trump’s odds to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election shortly after the incident occurred!

Furthermore, several key public figures officially endorsed Trump in the wake of the shooting. Elon Musk took to the social media platform he owns, X, and officially endorsed the former president.

In addition to Musk, billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman threw his support behind Trump moments after the shooting. Ackman’s tune has changed since the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. He wished for Trump to “resign and apologize to all Americans”.

However, Ackman’s latest comments on X indicate that he is all-in on Trump for U.S. President in 2024. In a long post, Ackman noted,

I am going to fully endorse @realDonaldTrump. I came to this decision some time ago as many @X followers have already understood from my supportive posts of Trump and my criticisms of @POTUS Biden.”

While updated poll data following the assassination attempt is currently unavailable, Trump had a two-point lead going into the political rally in Pennsylvania.

This should only increase, as our check of Google Trends clearly shows an increased interest in donations in favor of Trump.

The financial aid, Trump’s display of strength after the incident, and the overall sentiment seem to be trending in his direction.

How the US Presidential Debate Changed the Odds

The US presidential debate was a chance for Trump to show that he could be disciplined and for Biden to assuage fears about his age and cognitive abilities.

Both men failed, but Biden fared worse. His voice trailed off, he couldn’t finish his thoughts to the end, and he ended his first remarks by saying “we finally beat Medicare.” Trump leaped on him by agreeing with Biden and went on a strong, message-disciplined attack. Biden had some reasonable moments throughout the debate but couldn’t keep up with Trump as a whole.

On the night of the debate, Trump and Biden were polling about even. A week later, Trump had increased his lead by about two percentage points, a significant spike in a close race where he remains unpopular.

In public, prominent Democrats like Barack Obama and Gavin Newsom defended Biden as having a “bad night.” Privately, more Democratic figures and donors are calling for a younger and more energetic candidate to run instead.

There’s precedent for that decision. Lyndon Johnson chose not to run for re-election in 1968 because of the Vietnam War and challenges within the Democratic Party. He decided not to run on March 31, but 2024 Democrats don’t have the convention until August. There, they can decide on a new presidential candidate if Biden steps aside.

Biden remains undecided about whether to run again. Initially defiant, new reports suggest that he’s considering stepping aside for a new candidate if he can’t convince voters that his mind and speech are up to the job of president. Whatever Biden decides to do, Trump won the debate, and his chances in November look much better than they did before the debate.

More USA Presidency Betting Odds for 2024

We have winning party odds, courtesy of Bovada.

There are also winning party odds for the popular vote at Bovada.

For the first time since the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election odds were released, the Republican Party is favored to win the general election and popular vote. On July 9, at Bovada, the Democrats were -130 favorites to win the popular vote.

Following Trump’s assassination attempt, the Republican Party’s popular vote price improved from +105 to -110. Meanwhile, the Democrat Party regressed from -130 to -105. Moreover, the winning party odds also witnessed a notable change!

Public sentiment on the Republicans has improved markedly  — from -175 odds to -280 over the last few days. This represents a roughly 10% difference in implied probability. I can conclude that the shooting had a significant impact on these odds, too.

However, Biden stepping down slightly improved the Democrat’s odds of winning the election to +110. The popular vote prices remain the same.

Any other party, which includes the Libertarian Party and Green Party, has only a 2.2% probability of winning. Even that low probability is too high. Libertarians and Green Party members’ positions have been adopted by influential factions within both major parties. They don’t offer new solutions to an unaddressed problem like the Republican Party did when it was originally founded as an openly anti-slavery party in the 1850s. 

You can find up-to-date odds on the winning party and popular vote at Bovada by navigating to Sports > Politics > U.S. Presidential Election 2024 > Winning Party/Popular Vote Winner.

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How Did Trump’s Guilty Verdict Impact the 2024 Presidential Odds?

Trump was found guilty by a New York jury of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in relation to his affair with Stormy Daniels! How did this impact the U.S. Presidential Odds at online betting sites?

According to BetUS’ prices, Trump’s odds of winning the White House improved moderately from -140 to -150! Before the guilty verdict, Trump’s price held at -140. However, after the ruling, Trump’s chances improved to 60% from 58.3%.

The presidential debate had a greater impact on the odds than Trump’s guilty verdict, though. A CNN poll conducted after the debate found that while most viewers believed Trump won, few voters changed their minds about who they were voting for after the debate.

Since Trump’s guilty verdict, the Republican Party’s odds to win the White House shifted from -120 to -140, a roughly 5% jump in favor of the Republicans. However, the popular vote price continued to move in the Democrat’s direction. The debate hurt Democrats far more than the Democrats were able to hurt Trump after his felony convictions.

Party Approaches To Key Issues In The US Election

The Republican and Democratic Parties speak to different needs among voters. They approach key issues in almost opposite ways, so that might decide the elections in 2024. Let’s explore the most important ones.

Abortion Rights Advantage For The Democrats

One of the key issues boosting Democrats is abortion rights. Ever since the Supreme Court overturned the right to abortion on a federal level in June 2022, pro-choice policies have won on every state ballot where abortion was an electoral issue. Four states approved abortion protections, and three states rejected abortion restrictions.

Abortion rights not only mobilized Democrats. Politico also found that it turned Independents away from Republican candidates. Republican women voted against heavy restrictions, and the issue delivered a win to Kentucky’s Democratic governor.

While abortion isn’t the only issue that will decide the US presidential election, abortion rights will play a crucial role in it. Let’s look at other critical factors.

Republicans Favored On Immigration And The Economy

Republicans are consistently viewed as more capable of managing the economy and handling security threats. Immigration is related to both, and Republicans have a key advantage on the issue.

The Party favors tougher border security policies and restrictions on immigration. These positions align with blue-collar workers’ concerns about how increased illegal immigration affects their jobs.

Many of these workers have lost jobs to companies for one of two reasons. Some workers have been laid off after factories moved abroad to cheaper labor markets. Other workers were underbid by immigrants willing to work for lower wages. In the face of these experiences, working-class voters who lean left economically may be swayed to vote for Republicans based on these issues alone.

Abortion and immigration aren’t the only issues both parties can leverage. However, they’re among the most important issues for their voters. Trump and Biden’s challenge will be winning swing voters, who will really decide the election.

Swing Voters Will Could Decide The US Presidency In 2024

Stop reading national polls. Instead, read state polls in these eight states:

• Arizona
• Florida
• Georgia
• Michigan
• Nevada
• North Carolina
• Wisconsin
• Pennsylvania

These states’ electoral college delegates were decided by less than three percentage points in the 2020 Presidential Election.

Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia’s final votes were less than a 0.6% difference. They are the reason Biden is in the White House. If Trump had received a few thousand more votes in those three states, he would’ve won the electoral college by one vote and made it to a second term.

Either candidate could win the three close states or the five other swing states. Further, each of these eight states awards all their electoral college delegates to the winner. There’s no partial credit like there is in Maine.

Electoral college math is why every election is so close. California may be the most populous state, and its 55 electoral college votes are important. However, Republicans control large swaths of the South, Midwest, and the Great Plains. Both parties have found combinations of states that give them strong chances of winning the White House. That’s what makes the swing states so interesting and why odds for the next American president can change based on a small slice of the electorate.

Understanding the few tens of thousands of voters who will decide the election is a better guide to who will be inaugurated on January 20, 2025.

2024 US Presidential Election Predictions and Betting Picks

Donald Trump is favored to win the election after a chaotic few weeks. However, the US presidential election odds for him reflect that. I don’t see value in the prices for any of the candidates. I recommend waiting for the first polls after Biden’s exit. There’s simply not enough to work with right now.

However, there’s still a good bet on the table. Backing the Democrats to win the popular vote at -105 is excellent value and my recommendation.

Who Do You Back In The US Presidential Election 2024?

The US election odds for 2024 are close to my expectations, but I still think they underestimated the Democrats and Biden a bit. That’s why I recommend betting on them, but I know that many people will be backing Trump to win.

Either way, I strongly recommend using BetUS for your US Presidency best bets. The sportsbook offers high prices and a huge welcome bonus of up to $3,750 for new players. You can also get countless Election betting props on Trump, Biden, Mark Cuban, and a bunch of other candidates!

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