NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, December 23: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Michael Porter Jr. +480 (Nets vs. 76ers)

Michael Porter Jr. brings real value to score the first points at +480 odds tonight. The Nets have quietly become one of the league’s best jump ball teams. Winning 70.4% of their tip balls gives Brooklyn early control and a better shot at the basketball right from the opening whistle.

Michael Porter Jr. this season:
◾️ 25.7 PPG (Career-high)
◾️ 7.3 RPG (T-Career-high)
◾️ 3.2 APG (Career-high)
◾️ 80 3PM (T-9th in NBA)

Your #NBAAllStar vote counts 3x today » https://t.co/HMJ1hUXd1C pic.twitter.com/pkvP2Tm7kI

— Brooklyn Nets (@BrooklynNets) December 21, 2025

The 76ers have had mixed results in jump situations this season. With just 55.6% of tip wins they are likely to lose the opening opportunity more often than not. That sets up a perfect scenario for Porter Jr. to be the first to the rim.

Porter Jr. has been the go to scorer for Brooklyn. He is averaging 25.6 points per game on 49.3% shooting, showing a consistent ability to get buckets. He has scored at least 24 points in four of his last five games and leads the team with 18.6 field goal attempts per game which supports his shot volume straight out of the gate.

Devin Booker +500 (Lakers vs. Suns)

Devin Booker presents strong value at +500 to score the first basket when the Suns face the Lakers. Phoenix has a clear edge in jump ball scenarios, winning 67.9% of tip-offs. That puts them in a prime spot to get the first crack at the rim.

Booker hasn’t missed a beat since returning from a brief absence, dropping at least 25 points in three straight games. He’s coming off a 38-point performance on a hefty 27 shot attempts, making it clear he’s hunting his own shot early.

Devin Booker back like it’s 2021 pic.twitter.com/LRAEfWkrPm

— Book’em (@dbookownsyou) December 21, 2025

Averaging 25.6 points per game, Booker leads the Suns in scoring and sets the tone offensively. With Phoenix likely securing the opening possession and Booker in aggressive form, this first basket prop is worth a serious look at the current number.

Darius Garland +650 (Pelicans vs. Cavaliers)

Darius Garland brings sneaky value at +650 to score the first basket when the Cavaliers take on the Pelicans. Cleveland has the upper hand in the tip-off battle, giving them a strong chance to claim the opening possession and strike first.

Garland has averaged 17.6 points per game on 39.5% shooting this season, but he’s turned up the intensity of late. Across his last two games, he’s poured in 62 points on 42 field goal attempts, signaling a more aggressive approach on offense.

Darius Garland over the last two games:

31.0 PPG
9.0 APG
3.5 RPG
1.5 SPG
52.4% FG
61.1% 3P
100% FT
31.8 MPG https://t.co/S3RlzQhD04 pic.twitter.com/yk0JLTs1kM

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) December 23, 2025

That surge in shot volume makes him a legitimate first scorer threat. With the Cavaliers likely to start with the ball and Garland hunting his shot early, this +650 number looks like solid value in a favorable setup.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.