NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, January 2: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Paolo Banchero +550 (Magic vs. Bulls)

Paolo Banchero stands out as a premier first basket bet for the Magic in their showdown with the Bulls at +550. Orlando’s jump ball success is elite, winning 73.5 % of those possessions, which dramatically increases their chances of getting the first offensive opportunity of the game.

Paolo Banchero's crunch-time heroics helped send the Magic into the new year with a win!

🪄 29 PTS
🪄 10 REB
🪄 4 AST
🪄 3 BLK
🪄 1 Game-Winner pic.twitter.com/b5bON1moEI

— NBA (@NBA) December 31, 2025

Since returning from injury, Banchero has fully reclaimed the Magic’s scoring reins. He’s coming off 23 and 29‑point outings in his last two games, showing both volume and aggression, having taken 40 field goal attempts across those contests.

Across the season, Banchero has been a consistent offensive force, averaging 20.3 points per game on 44.2 % shooting. That combination of early‑game opportunity, usage, and recent scoring form makes him a compelling pick to open the scoring on Friday night.

Devin Booker +500 (Kings vs. Suns)

Devin Booker offers real upside in the first basket market at +500 when the Suns meet the Kings. This is a classic case of opportunity meeting volume. Phoenix has been dominant on tip-offs, winning 69.7% of them this season, while Sacramento sits near the bottom at 36.4%. That gives the Suns a strong edge to control the opening possession.

Devin Booker today:

32 Points
4 Assists
2 Rebounds
13/25 FGM
2/4 3PM
4/4 FTM
33 Minutes pic.twitter.com/yozKD152Bb

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) December 31, 2025

Booker is the clear offensive initiator, averaging 25.5 points on 45.7% shooting, and leading the team with 18.1 field goal attempts per game. He’s coming in hot too, scoring 22 and 32 points in his last two games while putting up a massive 48 shots combined in those contests.

With Phoenix likely to get the ball first and Booker’s aggressive mindset, this is a sharp angle to back him as the game’s first scorer at a price that still offers value.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.