NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, February 3: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Desmond Bane +700 (Magic vs. Thunder)

Desmond Bane lines up as a strong value play in the first player basket market as Orlando hosts Oklahoma City. The Magic are positioned well to control the opening possession, which is a critical edge when targeting early scoring props.

Orlando has been one of the most reliable teams on the opening tip, winning 70.8% of its jump balls this season. That success rate gives the Magic a clear advantage over the Thunder, who have captured 58% of their tip offs. With that edge at center court, Orlando should have the first offensive look and a chance to dictate the opening set.

THIS IS WHY WE TRADED FOR DESMOND BANE pic.twitter.com/vs2mAZMdCc

— Be Magic Or Be Gone!  (@BeORLMagic) January 31, 2026

Bane has been aggressive and efficient, making him a natural candidate to capitalize early. He enters the matchup averaging 19.4 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field. His recent form has been even stronger, with at least 20 points in five of his last six games.

At +700, Bane offers excellent value as an NBA first scorer prop.

Grayson Allen +650 (Suns vs. Trail Blazers)

Phoenix is positioned to control the opening possession in this matchup, giving the Suns a strong edge in the first player basket market against Portland. They have won 70% of their jump balls this season, a clear advantage over a Trail Blazers team sitting at 54%. That early possession edge sets the table for a Suns scorer to strike first.

Put Grayson Allen in the 3-point contest @NBA pic.twitter.com/HJyozcz5Qa

— PHNX Suns (@PHNX_Suns) February 2, 2026

With Devin Booker out of the lineup, Grayson Allen continues to see expanded opportunity and his role has grown significantly. Allen enters Tuesday averaging 16.7 points per game on 41.4% shooting and has been far more aggressive within the offense. That increased involvement has shown up in the box score, with Allen scoring 18 or more points in four of Phoenix’s last five games.

Early game trends also support the play. Allen leads the current lineup with six first baskets and has scored the opening points in 29.2% of games he has started. At +650, Allen offers excellent value as one of the best NBA first scorer prop bets today.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.