NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, February 20: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Luka Doncic +650 (Clippers vs. Lakers)

Luka Dončić offers outstanding value in the NBA first scorer market at +650 odds. The Lakers are in a strong position to control the opening possession, having won 64.8% of their jump balls this season compared to just 42.6% for the Clippers. That advantage at center court significantly boosts the likelihood of the Lakers getting the first shot opportunity.

Dončić has been a dominant early-game presence, leading the Lakers with eight first baskets and cashing in 19.5% of his starts. He also paces the team offensively, averaging 32.8 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field.

The NBA's scoring leader!

6x NBA All-Star @lukadoncic of the @Lakers⭐️ pic.twitter.com/zX9vtVAycf

— NBA (@NBA) February 18, 2026

With 22 field goal attempts per game, the highest on the roster, Dončić consistently looks to assert himself from the opening tip. Given the Lakers’ edge in the jump ball and Dončić’s heavy usage rate, +650 represents strong value for a first basket prop bet in this matchup.

Lauri Markkanen +550 (Jazz vs. Grizzlies)

The Jazz are in a strong position to control the opening possession in this matchup. Utah has won 62.5% of its jump balls this season, compared to 52.8% for Memphis. With Zach Edey out of the lineup, the Grizzlies’ tip-off success rate drops to well below 50%, giving Utah a clear edge at center court.

With that projected possession advantage, Lauri Markkanen stands out at +550 as a strong first basket candidate. Markkanen leads the Jazz in scoring, averaging 26.7 points per game on 47.8% shooting from the field. He’s also averaging 19.1 field goal attempts per game, showing how heavily involved he is in the offense from the opening minutes.

Lauri Markkanen is a walking mismatch pic.twitter.com/KlCuLR6Ts6

— NBA ClipWork 🎞️ (@NBAclipwork) February 16, 2026

Markkanen has recorded eight first baskets this season, cashing in 20% of his starts. With Utah’s edge in the jump ball and Markkanen’s high usage rate, +550 presents solid value for a first player basket bet.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.