NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, February 23: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Victor Wembanyama +450 (Pistons vs. Spurs)

Victor Wembanyama stands out as one of the strongest NBA first scorer prop bets on the board tonight. San Antonio is in an excellent position to control the opening tip, having won 73.2% of jump balls this season, compared to just 41.8% for the Pistons.

That sizable edge at center court should give the Spurs the first possession and an early scoring opportunity. With that advantage, Wembanyama becomes the clear focal point. He leads San Antonio with 24.3 points per game while shooting an efficient 51.1% from the field.

Victor Wembanyama is unguardable. 😮‍💨

pic.twitter.com/jLDiwxYWzG

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) February 15, 2026

His ability to score at all three levels, inside, mid-range, and from deep, makes him a constant early-game threat. Given the Spurs’ projected possession edge and Wembanyama’s aggressive offensive role, +450 offers strong value for a first basket prop bet in this matchup.

DeMar DeRozan +800 (Kings vs. Grizzlies)

DeMar DeRozan carries strong value at +800 to score the first points in this matchup. While Memphis has won 52.7% of its jump balls this season, that number dips below 50% when Zach Edey is out of the lineup, weakening the Grizzlies’ edge at center court.

Sacramento has shown improvement in the tip-off department with 7’1” center Maxime Raynaud handling duties. The Kings have boosted their success rate from roughly 30% earlier in the season to nearly 45% with Raynaud starting, giving them a better shot at the opening possession.

DeMar DeRozan today:
20 points
1 rebound
5 assists
2 steals
1 block
5/13 FGM
10/10 FTM
-31 +/-

The Kings lost to the Spurs by 17 pic.twitter.com/o53CZPgCNa

— Daily Basketball Statlines (@DailyNBAStats) February 22, 2026

If Sacramento controls the tip, DeRozan is the most reliable early scoring option. He’s averaging 18.6 points per game on an efficient 48.9% shooting from the field and remains one of the primary offensive focal points for the Kings. With his mid-range scoring ability and veteran poise, DeRozan is a strong candidate to open the scoring.

At +800 odds, DeRozan offers excellent upside as one of the best NBA first basket prop bets tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.