NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, February 24: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Donovan Mitchell +500 (Knicks vs. Cavaliers)

The Cavaliers profile as one of the stronger first scorer angles on the board thanks to their jump ball efficiency. Cleveland has won 63.8% of tip-offs this season, compared to 55.2% for the Knicks, giving the Cavs a meaningful edge in securing the opening possession.

With Jarrett Allen on the floor, Cleveland’s success rate at center court improves even further, strengthening the case for the Cavaliers to get the first look at the basket. If that happens, Donovan Mitchell is the clear focal point.

There's just something about Don and a buzzer beater today.@spidadmitchell | #LetEmKnow pic.twitter.com/bqIWBldXnX

— Cleveland Cavaliers (@cavs) February 22, 2026

Mitchell has been aggressive from the opening whistle all season, averaging 28.6 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field. He’s also coming in red hot, pouring in 52 total points across his last two starts and continuing to hunt shots early in games.

At +500 odds, Mitchell offers strong value as a first basket prop and stands out as one of the top NBA first scorer bets tonight.

Jalen Green +550 (Celtics vs. Suns)

With Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks sidelined, Jalen Green steps into a larger offensive role for Phoenix and becomes an intriguing first scorer option at +550. Green enters this matchup averaging 13.3 points per game on 38.2% shooting from the field, and his recent form has been impressive.

He’s scored 16 or more points in three of his last four games and has been highly aggressive offensively. Green has attempted at least 14 field goals in each of his last four games, including 23 and 26 attempts in two recent outings.

Jalen Green with authority!

A powerful flush on the break 😤 pic.twitter.com/bnTiXPQcsd

— NBA (@NBA) February 23, 2026

Phoenix also holds a notable edge in the jump ball department, winning 69% of tip-offs this season compared to just 41.1% for Boston. That advantage increases the likelihood of the Suns getting the first possession and running an early set for one of their primary scoring options.

Green at +550 presents solid value as a first basket prop bet tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.