NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, February 25: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Devin Vassell +700 (Spurs vs. Raptors)

The Spurs are well positioned to control the opening possession against the Raptors on Wednesday night. With Victor Wembanyama handling the tip, San Antonio should have the edge at center court.

The Spurs have been dominant in jump ball situations, winning 73.7% of tip-offs this season, while Toronto has managed just 39.7%. That gap gives San Antonio a strong chance to get the first shot attempt.

With the possession advantage in play, Devin Vassell becomes an appealing first scorer option at +700. Vassell has been aggressive early in games, leading the Spurs with nine first baskets and cashing in 21.4% of his starts.

D3V off to a hot start 🔥

📺 Peacock pic.twitter.com/LC2VSfChnF

— San Antonio Spurs (@spurs) February 24, 2026

He’s averaging 14.2 points per game on 43.3% shooting and is coming off an impressive 28-point performance against Detroit. With the Spurs’ projected control of the opening tip and Vassell’s proven early scoring production, +700 offers strong value for NBA first basket prop bets.

Chet Holmgren +500 (Thunder vs. Pistons)

Chet Holmgren stands out as one of the stronger NBA first scorer options in this matchup. Oklahoma City is projected to control the opening possession, holding a 54.2% jump ball win rate this season compared to just 41.4% for Detroit. While the Thunder aren’t elite in tip-offs, they still carry a clear edge over the Pistons at center court.

With that likely first possession, Holmgren becomes an appealing target at +500. He has continued to assert himself offensively and remains a primary scoring option in the Thunder’s attack.

Holmgren enters averaging 17.2 points per game while shooting an efficient 55.2% from the field, making him a high-percentage threat near the rim and in pick-and-pop situations. He also scored the first points of the 2025-26 season!

The 1st bucket of the 2025-26 NBA season belongs to Chet Holmgren! pic.twitter.com/0nbci4vHuV

— NBA (@NBA) October 21, 2025

Given Oklahoma City’s jump ball advantage and Holmgren’s efficient scoring profile, +500 presents solid value for an NBA first basket prop bet tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.