NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, February 26: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Desmond Bane +650 (Rockets vs. Magic)

The Magic hold a strong edge in the jump ball department and are well positioned to control the opening possession in Orlando. They’ve won roughly 70% of tip-offs this season, ranking among the league’s best, while the Rockets sit near the bottom with a win rate of around 37%.

That significant gap gives Orlando the likely first shot opportunity. With the possession advantage in play, Desmond Bane stands out at +650 as a strong first scorer candidate. Bane has been increasingly aggressive on the offensive end, averaging 20.2 points per game on an efficient 48.3% shooting from the field.

Desmond Bane after clutch three in LeBron James face

“ON YOUR HEAD BRON” pic.twitter.com/HZWN23Oin4

— Fullcourtpass (@Fullcourtpass) February 25, 2026

He’s also maintained strong volume, attempting 18 field goals in each of his last three starts, showing a willingness to attack early. Given Orlando’s projected control of the tip and Bane’s elevated usage, +650 presents appealing value for an NBA first basket prop bet tonight.

Isaiah Collier +800 (Pelicans vs. Jazz)

Lauri Markkanen’s uncertain injury status shifts the spotlight elsewhere in Utah’s lineup and opens the door for value in the first scorer market. The Jazz are in a strong position to control the opening possession, winning roughly 60% of jump balls this season.

In contrast, the Pelicans have struggled badly at center court, capturing under 30% of tip-offs, which is one of the weakest marks in the league. With Utah likely to secure the first possession, Isaiah Collier emerges as an intriguing option at +800. The second-year guard has stepped into a larger offensive role amid injuries and has delivered consistently.

Isaiah: 24p | 2r | 5a | 4s | 2b
Kyle: 20p | 6r | 3a | 2s | 2b
Ace: 20p | 6r | 3a | 1b
Blake: 13p | 4r#TakeNote presented by @ZionsBank pic.twitter.com/mT1qK00DSm

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) February 21, 2026

Collier has scored 17 or more points in six of his last eight games, including a 24-point performance against Memphis. With Utah’s projected edge in the jump ball and Collier’s expanded usage, +800 presents strong upside for an NBA first basket prop bet tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.