2028 Presidential Election Predictions: Odds, Polls, and Analysis for Next President

2028 Republican Presidential Nominee Odds

The following Republican Party primary odds are courtesy of BetUS:

JD Vance (-125) is the odds-on favorite to win the 2028 Republican primary for the US Election. Serving as Trump’s VP, Vance has been sizing up the opportunity to take over his boss’s seat in three years.

According to the latest prices at BetUS, Vance has a 55.6% implied probability to represent the Republican Party against the Democrats.

Following Vance, the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio (+500), has the second-best chance, with a 16.7% implied probability. In short, the odds point heavily in favor of Vance getting the nod.

Aside from Vance and Rubio, the road to winning the Republican nomination is long for the rest of the field. Ron DeSantis (+2000) and Kristi Noem (+2000) share the third-shortest price, with just a 4.8% implied probability. Unless there is a political scandal involving Vance, he will likely be the nominee, per oddsmakers.

2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds

The following Democratic Party primary odds are courtesy of BetUS:

The odds of winning the Democratic nomination are much tighter than on the other side. There are a handful of contenders that could realistically win for the Democrats. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (+300) is the most likely Democratic nominee, but he faces stiff competition.

Newsom has a 25% implied probability, while Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (+400) is on Newsom’s heels with a 20% chance to win. Kamala Harris (+500) and Josh Shapiro (+800) are also within reach, according to the latest betting odds.

Harris is coming off a tough defeat to Trump in the 2024 US Presidential Election, and I’d be surprised if she wins the nomination.

However, the presidential markets indicate Harris has a 16.7% probability of winning, which affords her a decent enough shot. The way I see it, however, Shapiro has a stronger opportunity despite the odds saying otherwise.

US Presidential 2028 Winner Odds

The betting odds on the 2028 US presidential election are courtesy of Bovada.

The 2028 odds reflect a similar state of the race as the early 2024 campaign. Some of the same big names in the Republican and Democratic parties are represented as relative favorites, and 2024 long shots are 2028 long shots.

Vance (+300) opened as the favorite to win the 2028 US Presidential Election, and that price has held strong since November! The 41-year-old from Ohio continues to have a 25% implied probability of capturing the presidential seat in 2028. Vance will need the MAGA vote, but does he have the charisma to lead the next generation following Trump?

Following the VP, Newsom (+900) has the second-best odds to win the 2028 US Presidential Election. At +900, there is a significant gap between Vance and the rest.

Currently, Newsom only has a 10% implied probability of getting into the White House. It’s worth noting that Ocasio-Cortez’s (+1000) 2028 US presidential odds have improved after not even being on the board in 2024.

Some interesting names to note: Ivanka Trump (+2000) and Donald J. Trump (+3000). Ivanka is tied with Shapiro for the fourth-best odds, while Donald holds a 3.2% chance! Of course, presidents can’t serve three terms in the White House, but the current President of the US hasn’t completely ruled out the idea.

Gavin Newsom

The Governor of California, Gavin Newsom, is a progressive hero on the political left and a common boogeyman on the political right. Independent of opinions about him, Newsom is one of the Democratic Party’s best communicators. He more than held his own in his 2024 interview with conservative pundit, Sean Hannity.

Newsom’s faculty of speech and clear vision for the Democratic Party made him an early favorite in the 2020 primary and a potential replacement for Biden in 2024. However, conservative media has cast him as such a villain that his electoral chances mirror those of Hillary Clinton.

Additionally, Newsom’s handling of the Los Angeles wildfires has been under the microscope, most notably criticized by Trump and Republicans. This will undoubtedly place a target on Newson throughout the primaries.

Josh Shapiro

Josh Shapiro is the Governor of Pennsylvania, a swing state that clinched Trump’s electoral victory in 2024. Shapiro was also on the shortlist to be Harris’ VP candidate.

Behind closed doors, Harris’ team worried that Shapiro would steal too much of the spotlight. He’s a charismatic figure and strong speaker — two qualities the Democrats have tried to replicate since Barack Obama’s presidency. Don’t be surprised to see Shapiro on the shortlist to be a presidential candidate in 2028, either.

Shapiro would be a qualified candidate to run for the Democrats. The 52-year-old’s largest roadblock will be trying to attract the Arab-American and Muslim vote for his support of Israel.

Andy Beshear

Andy Beshear became Kentucky’s Democratic Governor during Biden’s presidency. As a Democratic governor of a red state, Beshear was able to build a Democratic vision that some of his conservative voters could get behind.

His focus on abortion rights and rural education — and an unpopular Republican opponent — got him elected in 2019. Beshear has repeated those themes even after his re-election in 2023.

Americans are tired of the chaos, incompetence and cruelty we've seen over the past few months. The job of leaders is to show up, put politics aside and get good things done for the people. That's what American families want and deserve. pic.twitter.com/cTXgZ0hEtT

— Andy Beshear (@AndyBeshearKY) July 22, 2025

Beshear could be the figure the Democrats need to recover from their 2024 rout. It’d be natural for a new way forward to come from someone with Beshear’s background and strategic vision. Does he have enough charisma to appeal to voters at rallies and in debates? That’s questionable.

Pete Buttigieg

Pete Buttigieg is unique among Democrats. He’d frequently appear on Fox News to pitch Democratic ideas to conservative viewers and debunk false pictures of the Biden administration’s beliefs.

A late debate he did with undecided voters in the 2024 election’s final days stands out. He went toe-to-toe with sometimes hostile undecided voters who often held misleading beliefs about the Democratic platform. His calm demeanor and youth could make him the “normal” candidate who replaces Trump in 2028 the way Biden beat Trump in 2020.

JD Vance

JD Vance is Donald Trump’s Vice President and heir-apparent to the MAGA movement. Vance is a skilled debater who improved his likability and perceived competence in his debate against Tim Walz. Vance is also ideologically flexible, having been a critic of politicians, Never Trumper, and among the MAGA faithful.

His suave and flexibility make Vance a strong contender for a 2028 run. However, he’ll face the same challenge Harris did running as a Vice President. There’s only so much criticism a VP can direct at their president. The premium Trump places on loyalty may be a poison pill that curtail’s Vance’s presidential ambitions.

In my opinion, the Republican nomination will go to Vance if he avoids major controversies and toes the line of the GOP. That said, Trump Jr. is going to remain a prominent figure and rile up the MAGA crowd, so I wouldn’t discard his chances in 2028.

Ron DeSantis

Ron DeSantis was the MAGA movement’s heir apparent after Trump’s first term. He was viewed as someone who could champion the MAGA cause without Trump’s myriad personality flaws.

However, DeSantis entered the 2024 race too late, and Trump’s team planted the idea that DeSantis was “weird” before his official campaign announcement.

Trump never lost his base after he left office, so he was always the best-positioned Republican candidate to win the 2024 primaries. DeSantis could learn from his mistakes to reclaim the MAGA mantle in 2028.

Donald Trump Jr.

Donald Trump Jr. originally played a background role in Trump’s campaign. As Trump Jr. became more involved in his father’s political career after 2020, he became a MAGA darling of his own.

With strong standing in the MAGA movement and Trump’s likely desire to make his political career a family business, Trump Jr. has a good chance of becoming a serious 2028 contender.

However, establishment Republicans could be anxious to dump the radical wing of their party and rule more strategically. The 2022 midterms were a warning about the limits of MAGA candidates outside of Donald Trump. The Republican triumph in 2024 still had seven new states vote to protect abortion access.

At +2500 odds to win the Republican nomination, that’s a bet definitely worth a look for your 2028 US Presidential Election picks!