There are a few teams every year that always sneak into the playoffs that no one expected. Last year, those teams included the New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks, and the Jacksonville Jaguars. So who will be the surprise playoff team this year and who should you consider betting on? Here are three potential playoff teams in 2023 and their odds of making the postseason, courtesy of Bovada:
Atlanta Falcons (+130)
The Falcons were in the playoff hunt last year as the NFC South was weaker than ever. They moved on from Marcus Mariota this offseason and are fully leaning into Desmond Ridder as the starting quarterback of the future. Ridder was solid, but unspectacular, in a handful of starts last year. However, he won’t have to do a ton for the Falcons to make the postseason in 2024.
The Falcons averaged 159.9 rushing yards per game last season, third in the NFL. And that was before they added Bijan Robinson (No. 8 overall pick) to the backfield this offseason. With Robinson’s size and speed, he should make their rushing attack even more dynamic than last season. And with Tyler Allgeier now slated to be the No. 2 running back, they should have one of the best running back duos in the league.
In the passing game, they have two former top-10 picks in Drake London and Kyle Pitts. London is coming off a very successful rookie season and Pitts is just a year removed from being only the second tight end in NFL history to have 1,000 yards as a rookie. If both players can stay healthy, it’s hard to imagine this offense not being one of the most difficult to stop in the NFL, even if Ridder is only average.
But the reason to be bullish on the Falcons at online sportsbooks this year is due to their incredibly soft schedule. Atlanta will be favored in a big percentage of their games and their division (NFC South) might be the worst division in the league. If the Falcons can improve by just two wins in 2023, they could win the NFC South and host a home playoff game this year. Given all of the talent they have on both sides of the ball, that doesn’t feel unrealistic at all.
New England Patriots (+200)
It’s hard to believe, but the Patriots have missed the postseason in two of the last three years. What is even more surprising is that New England hasn’t made it past the Wild Card round of the playoffs since 2019. Given that they play in arguably the toughest division in the NFL (AFC East), will the Patriots miss the playoffs once again? Don’t count on it.
The Patriots finished the 2022 season with a record of 8-9, but they had a +17-point differential. That indicates that they were better than their record suggests and a few ugly losses in the fourth quarter and overtime (Raiders, Packers, Bengals, Vikings) really changed their season.
But there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about the 2023 Patriots, as they have brought back former OC Bill O’Brien to call plays. After a disastrous 2022 season with Matt Patricia running the offense, O’Brien gives Mac Jones a seasoned play-caller who should help the offense become much more dynamic.
As long as the offense can be average, the Patriots will be just fine as they will have one of the NFL’s best defenses. The addition of Christian Gonzalez, Keion White, and Marte Mapu in the NFL Draft gives them even more depth and athleticism on that side of the ball. It would be a major shock if the Patriots didn’t have a top-10 scoring defense this year, as they could easily finish inside the top three.
The Patriots have arguably the most difficult schedule in the league this season on top of playing in a loaded division. But it’s hard to count out Bill Belichick, especially when the odds at football betting sites are +200 for them to make the postseason.
Houston Texans (+550)
You want a longshot? Here is one for you. The Houston Texans finished the 2022 season with a record of 3-13-1 and have won a total of 11 games over the past three seasons. But it’s time for the Texans to be competitive. After trading away their 2024 first-round pick, the Texans have no incentive to be bad this year. Instead, new head coach DeMeco Ryans might try to make a run at the division.
And with the AFC South being one of the worst divisions in the NFL, it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see a sleeper team like the Texans be competitive right away. If C.J. Stroud can be good right out of the gate, the Texans should be pretty solid on offense.
They already have one of the best offensive lines in the league and the additions of Robert Woods, Dalton Schultz, and Noah Brown give them some seasoned options in the passing game. With that offensive line, they have a chance to really control the line of scrimmage and be a balanced offense. We’ve seen in the past how far a strong offensive line and a good rushing attack can take a young team and the Texans are no different.
But as exciting as their young offense might be this season, their success will ultimately be tied to their defense. The Texans allowed 379.5 yards per game last season, the third-worst in the NFL. The hope is that the presence of DeMeco Ryan will instantly make them better on that side of the ball, but don’t rule out the addition of Will Anderson Jr., who was the best defender in college football over the last two seasons. It wouldn’t be a shock at all if he helped this defense get to league average in 2023 and that might just be enough for the Texans to stay competitive in the weak AFC South. At +550 in your NFL sportsbook, the Texans are a really fun longshot bet to be in the playoffs this year.
