UFC Fight Night 219 Odds and Predictions

uUFC Fight Night Andrade Vs Blanchfield

This card has been criticized for not being exciting enough, but the betting odds are great for sports bettors looking to capitalize on some UFC action this weekend.

The UFC Fight Night 219 odds from Bovada have Over/Unders and money lines for each fight, but we’re speculating on the specialty and prop bet odds we’ll see later this week from the top UFC betting sites.

UFC Fight Night 219 Predictions

Here are our best betting picks for UFC Fight Night 219 along with the odds and our confidence rating for each prediction.  

BetOddsConfidence
Andrade Money Line-190High, Possible Parlay Pick
Wright vs Pauga: Under 1.5 Rounds-155Moderate, High Confidence Under 2.5 Rounds
Josh Parisian Money line+200Moderate
William Knight Money Line-115High
Hernandez vs Miller: Under 1.5 Rounds+120Moderate
Mayra Bueno Silva Money Line-425Parlay Pick
Khusein Askhabov Money Line-130Parlay Pick
OSP Money Line+185Low to Moderate
Nazim Sadykhov Money Line-175High
Ashton Fletcher Money Line-250Moderate
Clayton Carpenter-290High, Possible Parlay Pick

Parlay and possible parlay picks are good for building out a UFC parlay card. Include moderate bets and upsets to diversify your betting ticket, rather than pooling your cash to one big bet. We will have more cross-event parlay bets available in our Best MMA Bets of the Week column.

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UFC Fight Night 219 Fight by Fight Prediction

Erin Blanchfield +155 vs Jessica Andrade -190

Andrade just fought in January, and we had her as a top parlay pick over Murphy. She delivered a brutal beating, scoring 231 to Murphy’s 100 significant shots. UFC Fight Night 219 odds have Blanchfield as the underdog at 10-1 with a perfect UFC record of 4-0.

A few key factors give the win to Andrade. Namely, Murphy and Blanchfield’s similar 68% and 69% takedown accuracy. There is no question Andrade will win on the feet, but Murphy failed all 15 of her takedown attempts, and we see Andrade stuffing the takedowns of Blanchfield, making the -190 money line an easy top bet.

The Top Bet
Andrade Money Line

Jordan Wright +230 vs Zac Pauga -290

At 2-4 in the UFC, Wright has struggled with power punchers, despite landing two knockouts of his own. Pauga lost his UFC debut by TKO in the second, making the under a top bet. The under 1.5 is surprisingly high at -155, but we’ll be moving to the under 2.5 rounds for a safer bet later in the week.

Jamal Pogues -250 vs Josh Parisian +200

The underdog, Parisian, is coming off the third TKO win of his UFC career, while Pogues is a UFC newcomer after back-to-back DWCS wins. Pogues is a control time focused fighter and Parisian’s loss to Don’Tale Mayes feels like a guaranteed repeat.

To us, Pogues hands are very underdeveloped and Parisian has a solid chance of landing something big early on. Pogues is untested against UFC level finishing power, and we’ll learn a lot about him from this fight.

Marcin Prachnio -105 vs William Knight -115

At 2-3 in his last five, Knight’s 5’10 stature is tough to stay competitive at 205 lbs. Prachnio is gigantic, but it hasn’t helped. He’s 2-4 in the UFC overall, losing to Alvey, Ankalaev and Lins. His win over Rountree could be his saving grace, but Knight’s takedowns are going to overshadow the height advantage given Prachnio’s 53% takedown defense.

Alex Hernandez -240 vs Jim Miller +190

Miller is having a late career comeback, winning his last three fights by finish. Hernandez hasn’t been right since his loss to Cerrone in 2019, and is facing back-to-back finish losses to Moicano and Quarantillo.

It’s getting tougher to bet on Miller, but the Under 1.5 Rounds at +120 matches over half of both men’s performances. If Miller loses, we think it’s because he’s aged out. The UFC Fight Night 219 odds are being generous with the under on this one.

Lina Lansberg +315 vs Mayra Bueno Silva -425

This is the most one-sided fight of the night according to UFC Fight Night 219 odds, and we agree. Lansberg has dropped to 2.7 significant striker per minute after landing only 76 across her last three flights (all decisions).

Silva is a high pace fighter that will push the action while standing. She will also hunt the submission on the ground. Lansberg struggles against anyone willing to dictate the pace, and Silva will move forward into the fight constantly.

Jamall Emmers +110 vs Khusein Askhabov -130

Undefeated at 23-0, Askhabov seems like a fighter that should be well above -130. Emmers is 1-3 in the UFC, getting knocked out at DWCS and submitted in his last showing in 2021.

WWFC is an East Asian promotion where Askhabov has been the reigning champion, finishing 18 of his 23 opponents since 2012. Given Emmer’s history of poor submission defense, we think Khusein will cut right through him.

Ovince St. Preux +185 Philipe Lins -230

As a fan, we’d love to see OSP come back, but he’s approaching 40 years old this April and his chin is gone. Lins lost to Arlovski in 2020, so this is his second classic fighter. At 37 himself, Lins is late to the game.

If OSP has a win left in him, Lins is the man to do it against. He absorbs more shots than he dishes out, and his knockout loss to Boser revealed some weaknesses in his defense that were still exploitable against Prachinio. This is a tough fight to predict, so we’re going with our gut.

Evan Elder +145 vs Nazim Sadykhov -175

A Longo-Weidman MMA fighter, Sadykhov has six pro finishes at 7-1. His DWCS showing was a round 3 TKO. Elder lost his UFC debut last April to Preston Parsons, but has looked great the rest of his career.

Both men have padded records, and Sadykhov is the only one with a win over a decent pro. We’re banking on his money line for a $157 payout per $100 wager. Elder fans should bet the under or no decision props later in the week.

A.J. Fletcher -250 vs Themba Gorimbo +200

UFC Fight Night 219 odds are being generous to Fletcher after back-to-back UFC losses in 2022. Gorimbo is a South African submission specialist that has been knocked out before.

The reputation of South African BJJ as being inferior isn’t far off. Gorimbo could have skated by on subpar grappling, and Fletcher’s history of submission wins proves he’s well above that level. 

Clayton Carpenter -290 vs Juancamilo Ronderos +230

Undefeated Carpenter won a decision at DWCS and was offered the 4-1 Ronderos as a welcome to the UFC fight. Carpenter looks good on paper, and has all the tools to beat Ronderos with ease.

Juancamilo Ronderos was an amateur champion, but has been forced to take time off after a cannabis use/ positive THC test suspension. This time off and Carpenter’s aggressive up and down fighting will put Ronderos on his heels.

UFC Fight Night Andrade vs Blanchfield Anti-Hype

When a fight is billed as not being exciting for fans, it can mean a couple of things. First, the fighters are boring and the fights are one-sided. This is good for bettors. We love predictable fighters that perform with an even cadence and ability that does not dramatically change fight to fight.

Old fighters can be more predictable, because they’ve lost explosiveness and dynamism with age. A card being boring doesn’t mean that it should be looked over on your betting ticket. Tune in February 18th, 2023, and place your bets early before the odds shift nearing fight night.

Sources:

https://www.bovada.lv/sports/ufc-mma/ufc/ufc-fight-night-andrade-vs-blanchfield

http://ufcstats.com/event-details/f21a3d68fb9df387

https://www.bestfightodds.com/

http://ufcstats.com/event-details/f21a3d68fb9df387

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About the Author
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Jacob Clark
Sports/Casino Writer
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Jacob Clark had a 15-year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, one of TikTok’s most important BJJ influencers, Jacob is bringing his fight sports and betting knowledge to you here at The Sports Geek. When not writing insightful fight sports content, Jacob can be found teaching jiu-jitsu seminars all over Indiana and surrounding states.

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