Alavés @ Athletic Bilbao - May 11, 2025

As the stage is set for the highly anticipated Basque derby between Athletic Bilbao and Alaves this Sunday, I’m excited to delve into the statistical landscape that surrounds this clash. With bragging rights firmly on the line, we dissect the numbers to project both teams’ performances and what fans can expect from this compelling matchup.

Starting with the basics, Athletic Bilbao currently occupies the 4th position in the La Liga table, showcasing a record of 16 wins, 13 draws, and 5 losses. On the other hand, Alaves, sitting perilously close to the relegation zone at 17th place, has managed only 8 wins against 15 losses, alongside 11 draws. The stark contrast in their standings encapsulates the underlying narrative of this game: the home side—Athletic Bilbao—clearly has the upper hand.

Digging deeper into recent form reveals that both teams are coming off goal-less draws, with Athletic Bilbao’s last outing ending in a 0-0 stalemate against Real Sociedad, while Alaves scraped by with a similar result against Atletico Madrid. Statistically, these result trends suggest a defensive solidity from both sides. When we look at their goal-scoring performances in recent matches, Athletic Bilbao averages around 1.4 goals per game over their last five fixtures, while Alaves lags behind at approximately 0.8 goals per game.

In terms of expected outcomes, the odds—set at -164 for Athletic Bilbao, with a draw priced at +260 and Alaves considerably higher at +450—indicate that sportsbooks heavily favor the home side. Translating these odds into implied probabilities, Athletic Bilbao has approximately a 62% chance of winning, while Alaves sits at about 18%, leaving the draw at around 27%. Here, we see a strong correlation between team form and public perception, reinforcing Bilbao’s reputation as the dominant force in the Basque Country.

Assessing head-to-head encounters, the historical context leans heavily in favor of Athletic Bilbao. They have won 54% of their previous meetings since the inception of football data collection, further solidifying the expectation of a home victory. Alaves, while they have shown fighting spirit, particularly in recent seasons, face an uphill battle against a side that not only has superior talent but also the pressure of local pride and performance expectations.

What can we expect from this matchup? With both teams struggling to break the deadlock in their previous outings, we might see a cautious approach from Alaves, likely attempting to stifle Athletic Bilbao’s attack. Conversely, Bilbao will be eager to assert their dominance early, pushing for an early goal to take control of the game.

For fans looking to bet, the current draw odds of +260 could be tempting given the recent trend of low-scoring games. However, in light of Bilbao’s solid form and home advantage, I predict they’re likely to walk away with a narrow victory. A score prediction of 1-0 or 2-0 in favor of Athletic Bilbao feels realistic, showcasing their tenacity under pressure while perhaps also echoing the recent trend towards unders in goal-scoring.

In summary, while the historical data supports a Athletic Bilbao win, I encourage fans to remain cognizant of the ever-volatile nature of derby matches—anything can happen when local pride is at stake.