Alavés @ Real Betis - August 22, 2025

The Real Betis will beat the Alavés. The total will go over.

I back The Real Betis to take this because their attacking and possession profiles are stronger across the board. They average 13.6 shots and 4.6 on target, while Alavés sit at 10.3 and 3.2. Scoring output is 1.5 to 1.0, a clear edge. Passing accuracy at 81.1% versus 70.6% points to steadier buildup and more repeated entries into dangerous zones, which sustains chance volume. On target share is similar, 33.8% for Betis and 31.1% for Alavés, so volume becomes the separator. Using observed efficiency, I project Betis around 5.0 shots on target at roughly 0.3 goals per shot on target, landing near 1.5 goals. Alavés project in the 1.0 to 1.2 range through lower volume and a more reactive possession profile.

On the total, the combined tempo of 23.9 shots and 7.8 on target implies about 2.4 goals at base conversion, then the whistle profile tilts it higher. Alavés commit 16.4 fouls to Betis at 11.4, which drives set pieces and advantageous restarts. Those events add a few tenths to expectation and raise variance. With Betis more likely to play from ahead, the second half should open, adding transitions against a 70.6% passing side. I set the most common outcome bands at 2 to 1 and 3 to 1, and I expect the market total to clear comfortably.