Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers - August 25, 2025

The Milwaukee Brewers will beat the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Arizona Diamondbacks will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

I project Milwaukee by a narrow margin because it pairs a top tier run rate with steadier run prevention. The Brewers average 5.1 runs on 8.7 hits, with a 3.6 ERA that suppresses damage when traffic appears. Arizona is potent at 4.9 runs on 8.5 hits, but a 4.6 ERA exposes a run prevention gap of about 1.0 per game. With similar contact volume and Milwaukee creating slightly more traffic, the team with fewer free bases and cleaner pitching tends to separate late. On a neutral field I would make Milwaukee a modest favorite, and in most environments the run context still tilts toward their pitching and run prevention depth.

Against the spread and total, the profiles point to a close, high scoring game. The combined baseline projects near 10.0 runs, matching the sum of their season averages, and Arizona’s elevated ERA invites multi run innings. That supports an over, especially if early base runners force longer innings. Arizona’s offense is efficient enough to keep innings alive, so even while Milwaukee edges the win, probabilistic outcomes cluster around 5-4 or 6-5. That keeps Arizona within the typical spread and pushes the game to 10.0 to 11.0 total runs. I expect Milwaukee to convert the pitching edge into a tight victory, Arizona to stay inside the number, and the scoring tempo to clear the total.