Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins - August 25, 2025

The Atlanta Braves will beat the Miami Marlins. The Miami Marlins will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

I project a narrow Atlanta win because the run profiles tilt slightly their way. Atlanta averages 4.4 runs per game against Miami at 4.3, and pairs that with a cleaner run prevention mark at 4.4 ERA versus 4.6. Miami does produce more contact at 8.5 hits per game compared to Atlanta at 8.3, but both clubs sit at a similar 0.2 batting average, which hints that Miami’s extra traffic skews toward singles. That combination usually favors the team that converts opportunities more efficiently and suppresses damage a touch better, which points to Atlanta on the moneyline. Because the underlying gap is slim, I expect a one run margin often, which supports Miami to cover if the spread is 1.5.

I also lean over on the total. The blended baseline from their scoring rates lands around 8.7 runs, and the pitching context supports additional variance to the high side. With team ERAs sitting between 4.4 and 4.6, there is limited evidence of run suppression, and both offenses generate enough consistent contact to extend innings. Atlanta’s slight edge in run conversion plus Miami’s volume approach should create multiple scoring windows across the middle innings. If the number is posted near 8.5, my probability favors the over, with Atlanta prevailing in a tight, high scoring game and Miami keeping it inside the number.