Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies - August 29, 2025

The Philadelphia Phillies will beat the Atlanta Braves. The Atlanta Braves will cover the spread, and the total will go under.

Looking at the numbers, the Phillies bring a more potent offense into this matchup, averaging roughly 4.7 runs per game compared to the Braves’ 4.4. Additionally, the Phillies are landing 8.7 hits per game against the Braves’ 8.3. Both teams exhibit batting averages below the league average, but the Phillies hold a notable advantage with a batting average of 0.250 over the Braves’ 0.239. These offensive metrics suggest that the Phillies not only have more scoring opportunities, but also a greater likelihood of capitalizing on those chances.

On the pitching side, the Phillies have a more favorable earned run average (ERA) of 3.9 versus the Braves’ 4.4. This indicates that the Phillies have been more effective at limiting runs. Given both teams’ tendencies to struggle with consistency at the plate, I anticipate a game that doesn’t see an excessive number of runs scored. It stands to reason that an under total is warranted, especially given the fact that both teams have encountered difficulties in maintaining offensive efficiency. Therefore, despite the Braves potentially keeping it close, the combination of superior run production and better pitching should lead to a Phillies victory while also keeping the score low.