Brighton and Hove Albion @ Everton - August 24, 2025

The Brighton and Hove Albion will beat the Everton. The total will go over.

I project Brighton to control this match through volume and efficiency. Their attack averages 1.8 goals on 13.6 shots with 4.8 on target, supported by an 82.1 percent passing rate that sustains territory and chance creation. Everton trails across those indicators at 1.1 goals, 10.6 shots, 3.5 on target, and 75.3 percent passing. The possession and shot quality gaps point to Brighton generating more high-leverage looks and second phases. With similar foul profiles, 11.5 for Brighton and 11.4 for Everton, Brighton’s superior delivery and structure around set pieces further tilts the balance. On a neutral day, this statistical profile produces a clear favorite, and I expect Brighton to convert that edge.

The total trends over because the pace and shot mix are conducive to goals. The combined scoring averages land at 2.9 goals, which clears the typical total. Brighton’s share drives the ceiling, but Everton’s 3.5 shots on target per match is enough to produce a goal in a game where they will likely be defending deeper and countering into space. Brighton’s passing advantage facilitates sustained pressure, and their on-target rate is slightly better than Everton’s, which compounds over 90 minutes. My baseline has this playing in the 2.6 to 3.2 expected goals range, with Brighton carrying the larger share.