Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees - August 24, 2025

The New York Yankees will beat the Boston Red Sox. The Boston Red Sox will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

I project New York to take a narrow decision because its run creation is a touch stronger. The Yankees average 5.2 runs on 8.5 hits with a 24.4% batting average, and that slight edge in production offsets their 4.1 ERA. Boston brings a comparable offense at 5.0 runs on 8.7 hits with a 24.7% batting average, but the Yankees convert opportunities into runs a bit more efficiently. The Red Sox counter with superior run prevention, posting a 3.8 ERA, which should keep this within a run and set up a cover. In a game where both teams live around the 5.0 run mark, the better run profile tilts the straight-up result toward New York, while Boston’s pitching keeps it tight.

The total profiles to the over. Combining current scoring rates yields a baseline of 10.2 runs, and both lineups generate consistent traffic with 8.5 to 8.7 hits per game. Boston’s 3.8 ERA will be pressured by a 5.2 run offense, and New York’s 4.1 ERA will face a 5.0 run attack, creating scoring on both sides. With sustained baserunners and two offenses that clear 5.0 runs or sit just under it, I expect a game that lands in the low double digits more often than not. My projection centers on a one-run Yankees win with a total clearing that 10.0 run baseline.