Borussia Dortmund @ FC St. Pauli - August 23, 2025

The Borussia Dortmund will beat the FC St. Pauli. The total will go over.

I expect the Borussia Dortmund to control the match and convert that control into goals. They average 2.1 goals on 13.9 shots with 4.5 on target, pairing volume with precision. Their shot-on-target rate sits at 32.4 percent and their conversion from shots on target is 46.7 percent, both stronger than the FC St. Pauli. With an 83.1 percent passing rate and only 9.8 fouls per match, they sustain possession and limit disruptions. That stability typically translates into territorial pressure and quality chances over 90 minutes. The FC St. Pauli bring 11.0 shots with 3.3 on target and a 76.1 percent passing rate. Their conversion from shots on target is 24.2 percent, well below the Borussia Dortmund, which widens the margin if this becomes a chance-trading game.

I project the result to follow the base scoring profiles. The Borussia Dortmund’s 2.1 goals per match against the FC St. Pauli’s 0.8 yields a combined baseline of 2.9. That sits above common totals, and the stylistic markers support more than the mean. The Borussia Dortmund’s superior ball retention should increase shot volume and late-game chances, while the FC St. Pauli still generate 3.3 shots on target, enough to threaten a consolation goal. Foul rates are similar, 9.8 versus 10.2, so set piece inflators are limited, but the gap in passing accuracy of 7.0 points favors sustained pressure. I expect a clear win and enough cumulative attempts to push the total over.