Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Angels - August 22, 2025

The Chicago Cubs will beat the Los Angeles Angels. The Los Angeles Angels will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

I project a narrow Cubs win driven by superior balance. The Cubs average 5.0 runs on 8.6 hits with a 24.6 percent batting average, a cleaner offensive profile than the Angels at 4.4 runs on 7.8 hits and a 22.8 percent average. On the run prevention side, the gap is clearer. The Cubs carry a 3.8 ERA, while the Angels sit at 4.8. That combination, more traffic from Chicago and fewer free opportunities allowed, points to the Cubs controlling the run expectancy over nine innings.

I expect the Angels to keep this inside a one-run window often enough to cover. Their baseline of 4.4 runs suggests consistent scoring, and the Cubs, while better, are not a blowout offense so the margin compresses late. The total projects over. The combined team baselines land at 9.4 runs, and the Angels staff at 4.8 ERA creates a favorable environment for Chicago to reach or exceed its average. Meanwhile, the Angels’ contact level at 7.8 hits per game supports enough baserunners to cash their side of the total even against a 3.8 ERA opponent. Put it together, and I see Chicago’s efficiency deciding the game, the Angels’ steady offense keeping it close, and the scoreboard pushing past the number.