Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets - May 9, 2025

As I settle in for this matchup between the Chicago Cubs and the New York Mets at Citi Field, I’ve got that familiar buzz running through me. The stakes are high, and as a seasoned bettor, I’m analyzing every angle before placing my wager.

The starting pitchers set the tone for any game, and tonight we have a classic battle on our hands. The Cubs’ right-hander brings a solid record of 2-1 with an ERA hovering around 3.9. He’s shown flashes of brilliance but can also be hit hard if he’s not careful; his strikeout numbers tell the story of a pitcher who can get batters out but sometimes struggles to keep runs off the board.

On the other hand, the Mets’ ace has been electric this season, boasting a 4-1 record and an impressive ERA just under 3.0. That kind of performance can send shivers down your spine if you’re betting against him! The ability to limit walks and rack up strikeouts—over nine per game—is something that gives home fans plenty to cheer about.

Now let’s dive into team stats because they can often be just as important as those individual numbers. The Cubs have been putting up some impressive runs per game—over six—which is no small feat in this league. Their batting average isn’t too shabby either at .255, meaning they’ve got some potent hitters in their lineup who know how to make contact.

However, while their offense shines bright, it’s worth noting their struggles against the Mets historically—they’re just 3-8 against them over their last eleven encounters. This trend can weigh heavily on your decision-making when placing your bets.

On the flip side, we have the Mets who have been nothing short of sensational at home lately: they’re 14-3 in their last 17 games here at Citi Field. They may only sport a .243 batting average as a unit, but they manage to score nearly five runs per game thanks to timely hitting and clutch performances.

With oddsmakers opening this matchup with New York favored at -164 moneyline odds, it’s clear where they think the advantage lies. And looking at recent trends—it’s hard to argue with them after watching how well New York played in their last outing against Arizona—a commanding 7-1 win that saw both sides of their game clicking into place.

As for total runs? I’m leaning towards going over that line set at 7.5 tonight despite both teams having had recent UNDER results; it feels like we might see fireworks given how both offenses stack up when they’re hot.

So what am I betting? I’m confident taking the Mets straight up tonight while also putting down some chips on the OVER total runs scored. With all these factors swirling around me like old superstitions before a big bet—I’ll keep my lucky cap close by and hope it brings me good fortune once again!