Chelsea @ West Ham United - August 22, 2025

The Chelsea will beat the West Ham United. The total will go over.

I expect The Chelsea to control this match through volume and precision. They average 1.7 goals per match to 1.1 for The West Ham United, driven by a clear edge in shot creation at 15.5 attempts and 5.3 on target versus 12.2 and 3.4. The passing gap matters too, with The Chelsea at 84.2 percent to 80.1 percent, which typically sustains territory and repeat entries. The foul profiles are nearly even at 11.5 versus 11.6, so the difference should come from sustained pressure and the extra two shots on target The Chelsea generate. With similar conversion rates per shot on target, the side that produces more looks usually converts that advantage into a lead. I project The Chelsea to turn that possession and shot cushion into a multi-goal output.

The total trends over because the combined scoring baselines reach 2.8 goals, and the teams average 27.7 shots and 8.7 on target. At typical finishing rates around 32.1 percent on shots on target, that portfolio points to roughly three goals, with set pieces from a combined 23.1 fouls adding eventfulness. If The West Ham United chase from behind, their shot count of 12.2 usually climbs, which raises the pace and the total. My expectation is a 2.0 to 1.0 or 3.0 to 1.0 type result. The shot and passing advantages make The Chelsea the stronger side, and the volume profile pushes this toward an over.