Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks - August 22, 2025

The Cincinnati Reds will beat the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Cincinnati Reds will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

I see two offenses that can score, but only one staff that consistently prevents runs. Arizona averages 4.9 runs on 8.5 hits, while Cincinnati sits at 4.6 runs on 8.4 hits. The combined baseline is 9.5 runs, which already leans toward an over. The separator is run prevention. Cincinnati’s staff carries a 3.8 ERA, notably better than Arizona’s 4.6. That gap signals fewer efficient opportunities for Arizona and more for Cincinnati. Even if Arizona’s contact rate holds, the quality of Cincinnati’s run prevention should trim conversion. On the other side, a 4.6 ERA profile invites traffic, and Cincinnati’s offense is steady enough to capitalize.

My projection has Cincinnati pushing above its season scoring rate against this matchup, landing in the 5.6 to 6.2 range. Arizona projects closer to its average, roughly 4.4 to 4.8 against a 3.8 ERA staff. That yields a likely final around 6.0 to 4.6, which clears a typical total and supports a cover with a margin in the 1.0 to 2.0 range. The bullpen edge implied by the ERA split reduces late volatility, so I expect Cincinnati to hold a lead rather than trade scoring bursts. With the run prevention edge and enough offensive efficiency, I am confident in Cincinnati to win, cover, and push this game over the number.