Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks - August 23, 2025

The Cincinnati Reds will beat the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Arizona Diamondbacks will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

I expect a narrow Reds win driven by superior run prevention. The Reds carry a 3.8 ERA compared to 4.6 for the Diamondbacks, a gap of 0.8 that tends to decide close games. Arizona’s offense is stronger at 4.9 runs and 8.5 hits per game, while Cincinnati sits at 4.5 runs and 8.3 hits. That profile suggests a tug of war, Arizona generating more traffic and Cincinnati limiting damage more efficiently. In a likely one-run outcome, the pitching edge tilts the final result toward the Reds, while the Diamondbacks’ overall run creation keeps them inside the number.

I also expect the total to clear common market totals. These teams combine for 9.4 runs on average, and Arizona’s 4.6 ERA invites additional scoring events, especially when paired with Cincinnati’s 4.5 run output. The hits profile, 8.5 versus 8.3, points to steady baserunners on both sides, lifting the probability of multi-run innings and late scoring. Cincinnati’s run prevention should keep the game under control but not quiet, and Arizona’s balanced contact rate complements their run rate enough to offset the Reds’ pitching advantage. Net result, the Reds are the more likely winner, the Diamondbacks keep it tight, and the aggregate offensive baseline pushes the game over any total in the 8.5 range.