Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks - August 24, 2025

The Cincinnati Reds will beat the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Cincinnati Reds will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

I rate Cincinnati as the side with the cleaner run-prevention profile, which is the decisive factor given similar contact rates. Arizona averages 4.9 runs on 8.5 hits with a 24.6 percent batting average, while Cincinnati sits at 4.5 runs on 8.3 hits with a 24.1 percent batting average. The gap appears to favor Arizona’s offense, but the pitching split flips the matchup. Cincinnati’s team ERA is 3.8 against Arizona’s 4.6, a difference of 0.8 runs that outweighs the 0.4-run offensive edge. Over nine innings that run-prevention advantage shows up in fewer baserunners and suppressed damage on contact. I expect that to translate to a multi-run margin with Cincinnati controlling leverage innings.

The total trends over on base rates alone. The combined scoring baselines are 9.4 runs, and Arizona’s 4.6 ERA invites Cincinnati’s 4.5-run offense to play up. Arizona’s lineup still profiles near 4.0 runs even against a 3.8 ERA staff given its 8.5 hits and 24.6 percent average. My projection lands near Cincinnati 5.6, Arizona 3.9, a 1.7-run cushion that supports a spread cover and a 9.5-run combined total that clears the number. With comparable contact volume and a pronounced edge on the mound, the most likely script is Cincinnati building an early lead, extending it late, and pushing the game state into an over environment.