Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers - August 25, 2025

The Los Angeles Dodgers will beat the Cincinnati Reds. The Cincinnati Reds will cover the spread, and the total will go under.

I rate Los Angeles as the more reliable side because of a sustained production edge. The Dodgers average 5.2 runs on 8.6 hits, a stronger profile than Cincinnati’s 4.5 runs on 8.3 hits. That extra half run per game matters in a tight environment. While Los Angeles carries a 4.2 ERA, Cincinnati’s 3.8 ERA is the superior run prevention mark, which should compress scoring on both sides. The combined pitching baseline averages to 4.0 runs per team, or roughly 8.0 total, a signal that the game projects below many posted totals. Against that backdrop, I expect the Dodgers’ deeper lineup efficiency to create one more timely inning.

For the spread and total, I expect Cincinnati’s staff quality to keep the margin narrow. The Reds allow fewer runs per game than the Dodgers, and their hit suppression aligns with a lower pace. With both offenses clustered around the mid 8s in hits, traffic should be moderate, not explosive, which further supports an under. My projection is a one-score result that favors Los Angeles by 1.0 run. I put the most likely band around 4.0 to 3.0, which matches the Dodgers to win, the Reds to cover a typical run line, and the game to finish under. The logic is straightforward: the Dodgers’ run creation lifts them late, the Reds’ pitching keeps it close, and the run environment stays subdued.