Dallas Stars @ Edmonton Oilers - May 25, 2025

As the Dallas Stars prepare to face off against the Edmonton Oilers at Rogers Place, we can expect a highly competitive matchup. The Oilers enter this game as slight favorites with a moneyline of -149, while the total is set at 6 goals. Given their recent performance and statistical trends, I believe that Edmonton will emerge victorious tonight.

Let’s take a closer look at both teams’ offensive capabilities. The Oilers average approximately 3.2 goals per game on 32 shots, translating to a shooting percentage of around 10.4%. Their offensive zone percentage stands at an impressive 55.3%, indicating they spend more time attacking than defending. In contrast, the Stars score slightly more with an average of about 3.3 goals per game but do so on fewer shots (27.9), leading to a higher shooting percentage of roughly 12.3%. While Dallas has shown scoring prowess, their lower shot volume could be problematic against an aggressive Oilers team.

On special teams, both squads are relatively effective; however, Edmonton’s power play operates at a solid rate of 23.7% compared to Dallas’ slightly lower rate of 22%. The Oilers generate about 0.6 power play goals per game from approximately 2.6 chances, which bodes well for them if they can draw penalties against Dallas.

Defensively, both teams have strengths worth noting—Dallas boasts a strong save percentage of around 90.7%, which gives them an edge in goal prevention when compared to Edmonton’s figure of approximately 89.4%. However, it’s important to note that Edmonton excels in penalty killing with a success rate of around 78%, while Dallas performs even better at about 82%.

Looking back at their last encounter where Edmonton claimed a convincing shutout win (3-0), it’s evident that they have found ways to stifle Dallas’ offense effectively—even when considering the Stars’ higher goal-scoring average this season.

In terms of betting trends, it’s also noteworthy that Dallas has struggled recently on the road with just one cover in their last five games away from home (1-4 ATS). Conversely, Edmonton has been strong lately with seven covers in their last nine games (7-2 ATS) and boasts an impressive record overall—winning nine out of eleven contests recently.

Given these statistics and trends combined with my analysis, I predict that the Oilers will secure the win tonight against the Stars while covering the spread due to their current form and home advantage.

For those considering totals betting: given both teams’ defensive strengths and recent low-scoring outcomes—including four unders in Dallas’s last five games—the under appears likely here as well.

In summary: Expect Edmonton to win tonight over Dallas; anticipate that the Stars will cover despite losing; and look for this contest to finish under six total goals scored.