Detroit Tigers @ Athletics - August 25, 2025

The Detroit Tigers will beat the Athletics. The Athletics will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

I expect Detroit to control this because of a clear run prevention edge. Detroit’s staff sits at a 3.8 ERA, well ahead of Oakland’s 4.9, and that gap should show over nine innings. Even with fewer hits at 8.4 per game compared to Oakland’s 8.7, Detroit converts better. By runs per hit, Detroit is at about 0.6, while Oakland is around 0.5, a small but meaningful efficiency advantage that aligns with Detroit’s higher scoring rate of 4.8 runs to 4.5. That combination, better run prevention and slightly better run conversion, pushes the win probability toward Detroit in a close contest.

The total leans over on base rates alone. The offenses project to a combined 9.3 runs per game, and the ERAs add up to 8.7, both supportive of a higher-scoring environment. Oakland’s lineup is competent enough to push Detroit’s staff, while Detroit should capitalize against a staff allowing 4.9 runs worth of performance per nine. I project Detroit to edge this by a one-run margin, which puts Oakland on the right side of the number while the overall scoring clears the posted total. In short, Detroit’s pitching depth and run efficiency decide it late, Oakland keeps it tight, and the scoreboard runs a bit hotter than average.