Edmonton Oilers @ Dallas Stars - May 21, 2025

As we gear up for the matchup between the Dallas Stars and the Edmonton Oilers at American Airlines Center, both teams find themselves in interesting positions. On one hand, we have the Stars coming off a narrow 2-1 victory against the Jets, which underscores their ability to grind out close games. Meanwhile, Edmonton pulled off a surprising 1-0 win against a formidable opponent in the Golden Knights. Each team is looking to build on these recent successes as they vie for crucial points.

From an analytical standpoint, we see that Dallas has been solid offensively this season, averaging about 3.3 goals per game while taking just under 28 shots. Their shooting percentage hovers around 12%, showing they’ve been effective when they do get quality opportunities. However, it’s worth noting that their offensive zone time isn’t overly dominating (around 48%), which may impact their ability to generate consistent scoring chances against more aggressive defenses like Edmonton’s.

On the flip side, Edmonton mirrors this trend with slightly higher averages—scoring approximately 3.2 goals per game but generating more shots at over 32 per game and maintaining a better corsi percentage of around 54%. This means they are often controlling play and pushing into their opponent’s zone more effectively than Dallas.

Now let’s discuss special teams because that could be pivotal in this matchup. The Stars’ power play operates at about a respectable rate of around 22%, whereas Edmonton boasts a marginally better power play success rate of nearly 24%. However, both teams face challenges defensively; Dallas allows just under 10% of shots to find the back of the net and has an impressive penalty kill at over 82%. In contrast, Edmonton struggles slightly more on defense with saves below 90% and a penalty kill percentage closer to only 78%.

Given these numbers and both teams’ current form — with Edmonton going on an impressive run lately — I predict Dallas will emerge victorious tonight. They’ve shown resilience at home (5-1 ATS), and I expect them to leverage their strong goaltending and defensive structure to neutralize any high-scoring threats from Edmonton’s offense.

However, considering that both sides excelled in low-scoring affairs recently—Dallas’ last six games saw five end with totals going UNDER—I believe this game will follow suit. While high-octane offensive performances are always thrilling to watch, I anticipate that each team will prioritize defensive stability first given what’s at stake.

So here’s my prediction: Dallas takes home the win but not without making things competitive enough for Edmonton to cover the spread as underdogs—and keep your eyes peeled for another UNDER outcome as both defenses rise to meet early playoff intensity!