Espanyol @ Real Sociedad - August 24, 2025

The Real Sociedad will beat the Espanyol. The total will go under.

I expect the Real Sociedad to control the match through volume and accuracy. They average 10.1 shots with 3.2 on target, outpacing the Espanyol at 9.2 and 2.6. A 78.5 passing rate versus 74.6 signals cleaner buildup and more sustained phases in the final third. While the Espanyol shows a slight edge in raw scoring at 1.1 goals to 0.9, the Real Sociedad’s superior shot and on target profile points to a better underlying process that typically converts over time. In a possession tilted contest, the side that strings more accurate sequences tends to create the higher percentage looks late, and I see that tilting narrowly toward the hosts.

The under is supported by both teams’ tempo and risk profile. Their combined scoring sits at 2.0, and together they produce only 5.8 shots on target, which is not the footprint of a shootout. Fouls are almost identical at 13.2 and 13.1, indicating a stop start rhythm that limits flow and suppresses chance quality. The Espanyol’s lower passing rate invites turnovers, while the Real Sociedad’s methodical approach reduces chaotic exchanges. I expect a measured game with controlled field position, few clean finishes, and late clock management once the Real Sociedad edges ahead. A 1 0 or 2 0 scoreline fits the data, with the Real Sociedad’s process advantage carrying a low total.