FC Nantes @ RC Strasbourg Alsace - August 24, 2025

The RC Strasbourg Alsace will beat the FC Nantes. The total will go under.

I have Strasbourg graded better across the core shot and possession metrics. They average 1.6 goals on 10.4 shots with 4.1 on target, supported by an 83.3 percent completion rate that should tilt possession. Nantes sits at 1.1 goals on 10.1 shots and 3.5 on target with 77.4 percent passing, a profile that produces fewer clean entries and lower shot quality. The efficiency gap is real. Strasbourg converts roughly 0.4 goals per shot on target, Nantes is closer to 0.3. Add in slightly better discipline, 11.6 fouls to 12.1, and Strasbourg projects to concede fewer cheap restarts while sustaining more sequences in the final third.

That same profile drives the under. The combined shot pace is modest at about 20.5 attempts and only 7.6 on target, which, at league average finishing, maps to a total near 2.3. With Nantes’ passing slippage and whistle-heavy tendencies, the match should be fragmented, limiting transition flurries and second-phase chances. Strasbourg can manage this state, recycle the ball, and bleed the clock when ahead. I expect a controlled result, most likely 1-0 with 2-0 as the secondary outcome, both consistent with the under.