Getafe @ Sevilla - August 25, 2025

The Sevilla will beat the Getafe. The total will go under.

I expect Sevilla to control this matchup through efficiency and possession. They average 1.1 goals per match to Getafe’s 0.9, with a shot profile that is slightly heavier at 12.4 attempts and 3.9 on target versus 11.3 and 3.2. The real separator is ball security. Sevilla complete 79.7 percent of passes while Getafe sit at 66.0 percent, a gap that points to longer spells of controlled possession and territory for the hosts. Finishing rates are almost identical, about 28.2 percent of shots on target turning into goals for Sevilla and 28.1 percent for Getafe, so the edge comes from volume and field position. Discipline also shapes the tempo. Sevilla commit 13.0 fouls per game and Getafe 15.8, a profile that creates more stoppages and fewer sustained, high-tempo sequences, which suppresses scoring variance.

The total trends under on base rates alone. These sides combine for 2.0 goals per match, which sits below the typical 2.5 threshold. Getafe’s 66.0 percent passing and 3.2 shots on target suggest limited clean looks against a team that can slow the game with 79.7 percent accuracy. Sevilla’s 12.4 shots are measured rather than frantic, which keeps the game state tight. With similar conversion, a 0.7 edge in shots on target, and a stop and start foul profile, the most likely script is a controlled, low-event match where Sevilla find the decisive moment while keeping Getafe quiet. I am on Sevilla and the under with confidence.