Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox - August 25, 2025

The Kansas City Royals will beat the Chicago White Sox. The Chicago White Sox will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

I expect Kansas City to edge this because run prevention is the cleanest separator. The Royals carry a 3.7 ERA against the White Sox at 4.3, a gap that typically flips close games. Kansas City also generates slightly more base traffic at 8.3 hits per game compared to 7.7 for Chicago, which should tilt sequencing in the late innings. While the batting averages both round to 0.2, the extra hits per game for Kansas City are meaningful in a matchup where contact will matter. With these profiles, I project a narrow margin that keeps Chicago inside the number while Kansas City’s pitching efficiency decides it in the final third.

I also lean over on the total. The teams combine for 16.0 hits per game, and the aggregate ERA sits at 8.0. That combination, plus routine walks and situational advancement, typically pushes outcomes into the 9 to 10 run range. Chicago’s 3.9 runs per game should hold against a contact-oriented 3.7 ERA staff, and their 4.3 ERA invites sustained pressure from a Kansas City lineup that averages 3.8 runs with 8.3 hits. The expected run environment is not explosive, but the steady traffic on both sides raises the probability of multi-run innings. I see a one-run Royals win with enough baserunners to clear the number late.