Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers - August 22, 2025

The Detroit Tigers will beat the Kansas City Royals. The Kansas City Royals will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

I project Detroit as the side because their baseline run creation is 4.8 per game versus Kansas City’s 3.8. They also produce 8.4 hits with a 24.3 percent average, marginally above Kansas City’s 8.2 hits and 24.1 percent. While Kansas City brings a 3.6 ERA against Detroit’s 3.8, that 0.2 run pitching edge does not offset the full 1.0 run gap in offense. My model weights run production more heavily in neutral conditions, producing a Detroit win probability near 56.0 to 58.0 percent. That maps to a tight margin, most frequently a one-run decision, so I expect Kansas City to cover a standard 1.5 spread.

For the total, the combined scoring baselines sum to 8.6 runs. With both offenses combining for 16.6 hits and contact rates near 24.0 percent, there should be sustained traffic. Even against competent run prevention, base runners at that volume tend to lift totals. I project a central outcome around 9.0 runs, typified by something like a 5.0 to 4.0 result for Detroit. That supports the over with modest cushion while aligning with a narrow Detroit win and a Kansas City cover.