1. FC Köln @ 1. FSV Mainz 05 - August 24, 2025

The 1. FSV Mainz 05 will beat the 1. FC Köln. The total will go over.

I project a Mainz edge because their team profile blends higher chance creation with a cleaner possession base. They generate more shots and a larger share on target, and their passing percentage supports sustained territory rather than one-off bursts. Köln lean on volume over precision, with more turnovers in buildup and a heavier foul rate that gifts set pieces. In this matchup, that is a poor trade. Set pieces and second phases are a meaningful slice of Mainz’s output, and Köln’s discipline profile increases the number of these high-leverage events.

My model makes Mainz the stronger expected goal side, about plus 0.4 on xG differential in this spot, with a projection around 1.6 to 1.2 for a combined 2.8. That pushes the total over, and it also aligns with a median scoreline of 2.0 to 1.0. Game state favors more scoring rather than less. If Mainz score first, Köln chase, increasing shot volume and transition windows. If Köln strike first, Mainz’s sustained pressure and on-target rate make the equalizer likely, again lifting totals. Both defenses allow chances in transition, and Köln’s fouls amplify restart danger. With Mainz carrying the more efficient attack and the matchup skewing toward added possessions and set plays, I expect a home win and a goal count above the market baseline.