Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres - August 24, 2025

The San Diego Padres will beat the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Los Angeles Dodgers will cover the spread, and the total will go under.

I project a tight, low-variance game that leans toward San Diego because run prevention trumps raw scoring here. San Diego’s 3.6 ERA is the best unit on the field and should dampen a Los Angeles offense that averages 5.2 runs and 8.7 hits. On the other side, San Diego’s offense at 4.2 runs and 8.4 hits is steady enough to pressure a Los Angeles staff carrying a 4.2 ERA. The net effect is a slight efficiency edge per inning for San Diego, which elevates their win probability in a close environment where extra-base damage is contained and sequencing matters.

For the spread and total, I expect a margin near 1.0 run, which positions Los Angeles to cover on the run line while still losing. The under is supported by San Diego’s run-prevention profile and both lineups’ contact-first tendencies, with hits per game outpacing the expected conversion to runs. Fewer free passes and limited slugging translate to shorter innings and reduced run volatility. With San Diego’s pitching suppressing extended rallies, the game script favors a controlled pace and a narrow finish. A 3.0 to 2.0 or 4.0 to 3.0 outcome fits the numbers, Padres by a single run, Dodgers covering, and the total landing under.