Lazio @ Como FC - August 24, 2025

The Como FC will beat the Lazio. The total will go over.

Both sides bring enough volume and accuracy to drive a high total. Como FC averages 13.5 shots with 4.6 on target and completes 82.5% of passes. Lazio sits at 13.9 shots with 4.9 on target and 83.5% passing. That combines for about 9.5 shots on target, and at a typical conversion near 31%, I project roughly 3.0 goals. The foul profile, 13.5 for Como FC and 11.2 for Lazio, points to around 24.7 total fouls, which should create steady set piece volume and additional finishing opportunities. With both teams comfortable in possession and capable of sustained entries, the tempo supports an over rather than a grind.

I lean Como FC on the side despite Lazio’s higher scoring average of 1.6 goals versus 1.3. Lazio’s conversion on target is 32.7%, a touch hot, while Como FC sits at 28.3%, a touch cold. With nearly identical shot and chance creation levels, finishing regression is more likely to boost Como FC while trimming Lazio. The gap in passing accuracy is minimal, which makes the match more about who converts the similar supply of looks. I price Como FC as a slight favorite, around 39% to win with 29% for a draw and 32% for Lazio. My model expects a 2-1 type outcome, driven by balanced possession, frequent set pieces, and modest positive regression for Como FC in front of goal.