Leicester City @ Nottingham Forest - May 11, 2025

As I gear up to analyze the matchup between Nottingham Forest and Leicester City on Sunday, the data offers some intriguing insights into what we might expect. Currently, Nottingham Forest sits comfortably in 6th place in the Premier League, boasting a record of 18 wins, 7 draws, and just 10 losses. In contrast, Leicester finds themselves in a precarious position at 19th with a mere 5 wins to show for their campaign, complemented by 6 draws and a staggering 24 losses.

Opening odds have Nottingham Forest as the clear favorite at -250, while those who might be daring enough to back Leicester will find their odds at +562, with a draw positioned at +389. The discrepancies in these values certainly indicate the current sentiment surrounding both clubs.

Delving into the statistics of Nottingham Forest, they’ve been averaging approximately 1.5 goals scored per game. Their attacking instincts have yielded around 12.1 shots on goal, with 4.3 of those efforts hitting the target. This is a standard that speaks to their offensive capabilities and their ability to generate genuine scoring opportunities. Simultaneously, they maintain a sound passing percentage of around 74.2%, but perhaps more telling is their discipline, as they commit around 10.7 fouls per game, which could be an indicator of aggressive pressing and defending.

By comparison, Leicester City has had a tough time in attack, with only about 0.8 goals scored per match. They average 8.9 shots, but their efficiency drops significantly, with only about 2.7 on target. Despite a slightly superior passing accuracy at 79.1%, it hasn’t translated into tangible scoring output. Their foul rate is a touch higher at approximately 10.8, suggesting they might be feeling the pressure to challenge opponents effectively as they fight to avoid relegation.

The previous outings for both clubs also hint at the trajectory for this match. Nottingham Forest’s last game ended in a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace—a game characterized by limited scoring. On the other hand, Leicester managed a morale-boosting 2-0 victory against Southampton, yet whether such momentum can carry over remains to be seen.

Given the current state of both clubs, my expectations for this fixture lean heavily towards a Nottingham Forest victory. Considering Leicester’s persistent struggles in scoring, I would not be surprised to see this game finishing with fewer goals, even under the total set. With Nottingham Forest’s defense and Leicester’s attacking woes, an under-bet seems reasonable.

To sum up, based on concrete statistical performances and current form, Nottingham Forest is poised to beat Leicester City on Sunday, and a low-scoring affair is anticipated—solidifying the prediction for an under on total goals. This matchup serves as a critical moment for Leicester, but while they have occasionally defied their odds, the numbers suggest Nottingham Forest should prove too robust at home.