Liverpool @ Newcastle United - August 25, 2025

The Liverpool will beat the Newcastle United. The total will go over.

I like Liverpool because the attacking profile is sharper and more efficient. Liverpool generated 19.0 shots with 10.0 on target for a 52.6% on-target rate, converting 21.1% of attempts into 4.0 goals. Newcastle managed 16.0 shots with 3.0 on target, an 18.8% on-target rate, and 0.0 goals. Passing accuracy is essentially level, 79.8% versus 80.8%, but Liverpool’s lower foul count, 7.0 versus 11.0, points to cleaner possession and fewer defensive concessions. That combination, higher accuracy and better discipline, tilts territory and chance quality toward Liverpool and supports a result where they control phases and convert at a higher clip.

The total projects high because the pace indicators are elevated. These teams combined for 35.0 shots and 13.0 on target, which typically drives multi-goal outcomes. Liverpool’s 40.0% conversion per shot on target is likely to regress, but with 10.0 shots on frame, even average finishing still produces multiple goals. Newcastle’s 16.0-shot output rarely pairs with 0.0 goals in consecutive samples, so basic regression suggests they contribute to the scoring. The foul split, 11.0 to 7.0, also hints at more set pieces and restart pressure favoring Liverpool. I expect Liverpool to get in front, the match to open up, and the chance volume to push the total past a standard threshold with both sides generating enough looks to clear it.