Memphis Grizzlies @ Oklahoma City Thunder - April 22, 2025

As the Oklahoma City Thunder prepare to host the Memphis Grizzlies at Paycom Center, fans can expect an intriguing matchup between two teams with contrasting recent performances. The oddsmakers have set the Thunder as substantial -13.5-point favorites, and given their current form, it’s hard to argue against that line.

The Thunder come into this game boasting an impressive 69-15 record and riding a five-game winning streak. They’ve been exceptional against the spread lately, going 5-0 in their last five games and 8-1 in their past nine home contests. Their offensive stats reveal a high-scoring team averaging approximately 120 points per game on a solid shooting percentage of around 48%. They’re also efficient from three-point range (37%) and have maintained an impressive free throw percentage of nearly 82%. With an average of just over 26 assists per game, it’s clear they share the ball well and create opportunities for one another.

On the defensive side, while they grab about 44 total rebounds per game and generate roughly ten steals, they do commit around 20 fouls. This could be significant if Memphis finds ways to exploit those fouls at the charity stripe.

Conversely, Memphis enters this contest with a less favorable outlook after suffering a heavy defeat against Oklahoma City in their last meeting—a staggering 131-80 loss where they failed to cover as +13 underdogs. The Grizzlies’ season record stands at 49-36, but they’ve struggled recently with only two wins in their last six outings (2-4 SU). They’ve also covered just seven of their last twenty-two games (7-15 ATS), which raises concerns about how they’ll respond tonight.

Offensively, Memphis has put up slightly more points than Oklahoma City this season—averaging around 122 points—but it comes with lower efficiency numbers: shooting nearly 48% from the field and hitting about 37% from beyond the arc. While they dish out more assists than OKC (around 28), their turnovers are problematic; losing almost sixteen possessions each game is something that can’t continue if they hope to compete effectively.

Defensively, Memphis does hold an edge in rebounding with approximately 47 boards per game compared to Oklahoma City’s total of around 45. However, they give up too many turnovers themselves (over fifteen) alongside committing nearly twenty-one fouls per outing—factors that will likely hinder them further against such an explosive offense like Oklahoma City’s.

Given all these statistics and trends leading into this matchup, I predict that the Thunder will not only win but also cover the spread comfortably tonight. Furthermore, considering both teams’ recent scoring outputs combined with defensive lapses observed throughout this season’s matchups suggests we might see a final score falling below the game’s total opening line of **230**. Thus my expectation is for another UNDER result when these two meet again on Tuesday night.