Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs - May 12, 2025

As I gear up for the matchup between the Miami Marlins and the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field, I’m excited to dive into the numbers that tell a compelling story about what we can expect from tonight’s game.

The Marlins will send Cal Quantrill to the mound, who has had a rough season thus far with a 2-3 record and an inflated ERA of 6.0. While his strikeout rate is slightly above average at 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings, his inability to keep runs off the board raises concerns about his effectiveness against a potent Cubs lineup. The Marlins have struggled as a team, posting just 15 wins in their first 39 games and averaging only 4.3 runs per game.

On the flip side, Colin Rea takes the hill for the Cubs with an impressive record of 2-0 and a much more respectable ERA of 3.9. His strikeout rate sits at about 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings—comparable to Quantrill—but it’s his ability to limit damage that stands out. The Cubs have averaged nearly six runs per game this season (5.97) and boast a solid on-base percentage of approximately 75.9%. This offensive firepower gives them an edge over Miami’s struggling offense.

When we look at recent performances, both teams are coming off losses; however, Chicago’s defeat was by a larger margin (6-2 against New York), indicating they may be eager to bounce back in front of their home crowd after dropping four out of their last five games overall.

From a betting perspective, oddsmakers opened with Chicago as heavy favorites (-238), reflecting confidence in their ability to capitalize on Miami’s pitching woes while taking advantage of their own offensive capabilities. The total for this game opened at eight runs—a number that feels conservative given both teams’ recent trends towards higher scoring games.

Miami has seen totals go OVER in roughly two-thirds (15 out of 22) of its games this season, while Chicago has also trended towards higher-scoring affairs lately—with four out of their last six games exceeding the total set for today’s contest.

Given all these factors—Rea’s strong performance metrics compared to Quantrill’s struggles along with each team’s respective run production—I predict that tonight will favor the Cubs decisively over the Marlins while also seeing enough action from both sides to push past that total line set at eight runs.

In conclusion, expect Chicago not only to secure victory but also for this matchup to yield plenty of scoring opportunities leading us into an OVER outcome on totals betting as well!