Miami Marlins @ New York Mets - August 28, 2025

The New York Mets will beat the Miami Marlins. The Miami Marlins will cover the spread, and the total will go over.

Analyzing the offensive capabilities, the Mets are producing an average of 4.6 runs per game, slightly edging out the Marlins at 4.3 runs. While the Marlins have a marginally superior batting average at .244 compared to the Mets’ .241, the Mets are more efficient at converting hitting opportunities into runs. Additionally, the Mets accumulate about 8.3 hits per game, which, while slightly less than the Marlins’ 8.5 hits, demonstrates their capacity to keep pressure on opposing pitchers.

On the pitching front, the Mets boast a solid 3.9 ERA compared to the Marlins at 4.6 ERA. This suggests that the Mets’ pitchers are better at limiting runs and keeping games within a manageable score. However, given that both teams are averaging just over four runs per game, it’s realistic to anticipate that this matchup will yield runs, making the total likely to surpass the over mark. In conclusion, while I see a Mets victory on the horizon due to their superior run prevention, the Marlins’ ability to hit effectively will keep the game closer than expected, allowing them to cover the spread.