Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets - July 1, 2025

As a seasoned bettor, I’ve learned over the years that every game tells a story. The matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and the New York Mets at Citi Field on Tuesday night is no different. Both teams are hungry for a win, but trends and stats will help us unearth value in this betting landscape.

Let’s start with the pitching. The Brewers will send Freddy Peralta to the mound, a right-hander boasting an 8-4 record along with a solid 2.90 ERA this season. He knows how to handle pressure and has been quite effective at keeping opponents off balance. However, he might face stiff competition against Clay Holmes of the Mets, who also sports an 8-4 record but carries a slightly higher ERA of 3.446. It’s essential to note that while both pitchers have similar records, Peralta’s ability to limit runs gives him an edge in my book.

Now let’s shift gears to what these hitters bring to the table. The Brewers’ offense has been more potent on average than the Mets’, posting about 4.7 runs per game compared to New York’s 4.4 runs. They’re also connecting with about 8.3 hits per game, which is marginally better than what the Mets are producing at 8.2 hits per contest.

However, here is where it gets interesting: New York is coming off a humiliating loss against Pittsburgh where they were blown out 12-1; they’ll be looking for redemption tonight and often teams respond well after such games—especially at home when they can rally their fans behind them.

The recent trends tell another compelling story as well—the Mets have struggled lately with three consecutive losses and only managing five wins in their last seventeen games (5-12 ATS), which raises some flags for me as I consider taking them straight up tonight.

On the other hand, Milwaukee has shown resilience recently by going 4-1 both straight-up and against-the-spread in their last five outings—definitely something worth considering when placing your wagers.

Taking into account all these factors, I’m leaning toward placing my bet on New York tonight despite their recent slide because they are due for a bounce back, especially facing an opponent like Milwaukee who just dropped one against Colorado themselves.

As for total points? I predict we’ll see more than eight runs scored in this game given that both teams can hit consistently enough and considering how well each pitcher handles strikeouts (Holmes averaging around 8.7 K/9 innings while Peralta isn’t too far off). Plus, we’ve seen how volatile scoring can be after blowout losses; those bats tend to wake up!

In summary: My prediction favors New York winning this matchup while expecting it to go OVER eight runs total—a classic case of trusting instinct backed by hard data and good old-fashioned betting wisdom! Let’s hope our rituals work their magic tonight!